Stock Ratings / Financials / FXNC / forecast

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First National Corporation (FXNC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$30.93 +0.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.02

First National Corporation (FXNC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $279.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.02 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FXNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FXNC SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 79% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$29.46+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$29.56+1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$29.98+3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$30.93+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FXNC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, FXNC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($30.33) or 200D SMA ($28.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($32.60) toward Bear Floor ($25.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FXNC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FXNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FXNC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $30.93: 323.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $25.36

$8,199

$-1,801 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $32.60

$10,540

+$540 (+5.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $38.47

$12,438

+$2,438 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$34	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$36	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$29	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FXNC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FXNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.76%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $30.92H $30.93L $30.25C $30.93VOL 16.7K

RES: $31.92SUP: $28.09SMA50: $30.33SMA200: $28.83

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FXNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FXNC Butterfly Map → + Track FXNC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FXNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FXNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FXNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FXNC)

Financials Rank #158 of 1096 ⚔️ VABK vs FXNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FXNC vs. VABK, LCNB, OVLY, HWBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First National Corporation (FXNC) ranks #158 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #826 by equity capitalization ($279.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVLY leads on earnings valuation at 9.4x trailing P/E, while OVLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FXNC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FXNC ACTIVE First National Corporation	B-	70/100	15.8x	—	9.5%	+0.26%	$279.7M	Benchmark Subject
VABK Virginia National Bankshares Corporation	B-	70/100	14.4x	—	10.5%	+5.14%	$277.7M	/vabk-vs-fxnc →
LCNB LCNB Corporation	C	65/100	12.3x	—	8.4%	+1.48%	$284.1M	/lcnb-vs-fxnc →
OVLY Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)	C+	69/100	9.4x	—	14.8%	+0.76%	$290.1M	/ovly-vs-fxnc →
HWBK Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	12.2x	—	13.7%	+1.33%	$290.4M	/hwbk-vs-fxnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000719402

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First National Corporation (FXNC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $17.7M, operating cash flow of $25.1M, and free cash flow of $25.1M (+213.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, FXNC closed FY2025 with $2.04B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$17.7M	$25.1M	$25.1M	$2.04B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$7.0M	-$22.2M	-$22.2M	$2.01B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$9.6M	$16.4M	$16.4M	—	—

3. FXNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FXNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First National Corporation (NASDAQ: FXNC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $30.93 (+0.26% 1D, market cap $279.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FXNC ranks #158 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FXNC compare to VABK and LCNB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FXNC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, VABK (Virginia National Bankshares Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $277.7M) and LCNB (LCNB Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $284.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FXNC?

Per FXNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000719402), First National Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $17.7M in net income, and $25.1M in free cash flow against $2.04B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FXNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FXNC last traded at $30.93 (+0.26% on volume of 15,721 shares), positioning the stock +1.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($30.33) and +7.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.83). Across its 52-week range of $22.40 to $33.24, FXNC sits at the 78.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($29.26 to $32.60).

FXNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FXNC's 12-month stock price target?

First National Corporation (FXNC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $32.6 (+5.4% from $30.93), with a bull-case target of $38.47 and a bear-case floor of $25.36.

Is FXNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FXNC B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 70/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FXNC RQD Cockpit FXNC 12M Forecast FXNC Earnings & Move FXNC Dividends & DRIP FXNC Insiders & 13F FXNC Whale Options FXNC Profit Sankey FXNC News & Why