Stock Ratings / Financials / FRME / options

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First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$41.09 +1.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.27

First Merchants Corporation (FRME) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $2.58B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.27 (+0.43%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 7.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FRME)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FRME SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 60% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$39.00+1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$39.60+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$40.68+1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$41.09+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FRME Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, FRME faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.61) or 200D SMA ($40.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.49) toward Bear Floor ($33.69).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FRME• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FRME Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±3.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FRME)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FRME.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FRME & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FRME
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FRME // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $41.25H $41.27L $40.46C $41.09VOL 412.5K

RES: $42.58SUP: $38.13SMA50: $40.61SMA200: $40.73

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FRME Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FRME Butterfly Map → + Track FRME →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FRME today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FRME. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FRME today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FRME)

Financials Rank #118 of 1096 ⚔️ TRMK vs FRME Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FRME vs. TRMK, BANR, FBNC, FBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Merchants Corporation (FRME) ranks #118 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #391 by equity capitalization ($2.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FRME leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while TRMK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and — gross margin. FRME currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FRME ACTIVE First Merchants Corporation	B-	71/100	11.4x	—	9.2%	+1.06%	$2.58B	Benchmark Subject
TRMK Trustmark Corporation	B-	70/100	11.6x	—	10.6%	-0.36%	$2.60B	/trmk-vs-frme →
BANR Banner Corporation	D+	57/100	—	—	3.8%	+0.93%	$2.54B	/banr-vs-frme →
FBNC First Bancorp	B-	70/100	23.9x	—	6.7%	+1.37%	$2.66B	/fbnc-vs-frme →
FBK FB Financial Corporation	C+	67/100	21.9x	—	6.3%	+1.42%	$2.68B	/fbk-vs-frme →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000712534

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Merchants Corporation (FRME) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $226.0M, operating cash flow of $283.6M, and free cash flow of $283.6M (+6.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FRME closed FY2025 with $19.03B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$226.0M	$283.6M	$283.6M	$19.03B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$201.4M	$266.2M	$266.2M	$18.31B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$223.8M	$258.8M	$258.8M	—	—

3. FRME Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FRME stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ: FRME) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $41.09 (+1.06% 1D, market cap $2.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FRME ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FRME compare to TRMK and BANR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FRME carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TRMK (Trustmark Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $2.60B) and BANR (Banner Corporation) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $2.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRME leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while TRMK leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRME?

Per FRME's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712534), First Merchants Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $226.0M in net income, and $283.6M in free cash flow against $19.03B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FRME trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FRME last traded at $41.09 (+1.06% on volume of 447,088 shares), positioning the stock +1.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.61) and +0.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($40.73). Across its 52-week range of $34.66 to $45.33, FRME sits at the 60.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.7% ($39.57 to $42.61).

FRME Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FRME's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for FRME.

Direct Sub-Reports: FRME RQD Cockpit FRME 12M Forecast FRME Earnings & Move FRME Dividends & DRIP FRME Insiders & 13F FRME Whale Options FRME Profit Sankey FRME News & Why