Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) surged +3.01% to $6.85, trading at 91% of its 52-week range ($1.7 – $7.39). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Boot Barn (BOOT) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +3.07% and +0.12%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
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TSCO's Q3 2026 sales rose 5.1%, but earnings fell 11.6% amid margin pressure. Comps increased 0.4% year over year.
Announces Participation in Upcoming ConferencesRICHARDSON, Texas, Oct. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) announced today that it will report third quarter 2026 financial results after market
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -12.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOSL today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) ranks #839 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #611 by equity capitalization ($405.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ELA leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. MOV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with FOSL at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL
ACTIVE
Fossil Group Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 56.1% | -7.2% | +3.01% | $405.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| ELA Envela Corporation | B- | 70/100 | 20.2x | 22.4% | 20.7% | +2.15% | $295.5M | /ela-vs-fosl → |
| MOV Movado Group Inc. | B | 73/100 | 26.6x | 54.2% | 8.5% | +1.77% | $706.4M | /mov-vs-fosl → |
| BRLT Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) | D | 47/100 | — | 57.5% | -35.0% | +2.58% | $161.9M | /brlt-vs-fosl → |
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | D | 49/100 | — | — | 2.6% | -0.26% | $2.01B | /vsts-vs-fosl → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.00B (-12.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.14B , and -28.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$57.9M, and free cash flow of -$60.5M (-251.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOSL closed FY2025 with $689.3M in total assets against $201.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-03 | $1.00B | $0 | -$57.9M | -$60.5M | $689.3M | $201.1M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-28 | $1.14B | $0 | $46.7M | $39.9M | $763.6M | $165.9M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-30 | $1.41B | $0 | -$59.5M | -$59.5M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $6.85 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $405.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOSL ranks #839 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), FOSL carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 56.1%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $295.5M) and MOV (Movado Group Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $706.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).
Per FOSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000883569), Fossil Group Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (-12.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$60.5M in free cash flow against $689.3M in total assets and $201.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
FOSL last traded at $6.85 (+3.01% on volume of 503,945 shares), positioning the stock +12.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.07) and +41.82% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.83). Across its 52-week range of $1.70 to $7.39, FOSL sits at the 90.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($6.13 to $7.57).
Why FOSL Stock surged +3.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.