Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FOSL / insiders

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Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$6.85 +3.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $405.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

FOSL Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (FOSL)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on FOSL. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOSL)

✓Walkthrough of FOSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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FOSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +54.63%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.77H $6.96L $6.53C $6.85VOL 579.7K

RES: $7.74SUP: $4.13SMA50: $6.07SMA200: $4.83

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOSL Butterfly Map → + Track FOSL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -12.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #839 of 1011 ⚔️ ELA vs FOSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FOSL vs. ELA, MOV, BRLT, VSTS)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) ranks #839 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #611 by equity capitalization ($405.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ELA leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. MOV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with FOSL at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FOSL ACTIVE Fossil Group Inc.	D-	39/100	—	56.1%	-7.2%	+3.01%	$405.1M	Benchmark Subject
ELA Envela Corporation	B-	70/100	20.2x	22.4%	20.7%	+2.15%	$295.5M	/ela-vs-fosl →
MOV Movado Group Inc.	B	73/100	26.6x	54.2%	8.5%	+1.77%	$706.4M	/mov-vs-fosl →
BRLT Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	—	57.5%	-35.0%	+2.58%	$161.9M	/brlt-vs-fosl →
VSTS Vestis Corporation	D	49/100	—	—	2.6%	-0.26%	$2.01B	/vsts-vs-fosl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0000883569

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.00B (-12.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.14B , and -28.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$57.9M, and free cash flow of -$60.5M (-251.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOSL closed FY2025 with $689.3M in total assets against $201.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$1.00B	$0	-$57.9M	-$60.5M	$689.3M	$201.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$1.14B	$0	$46.7M	$39.9M	$763.6M	$165.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.41B	$0	-$59.5M	-$59.5M	—	—

3. FOSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $6.85 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $405.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOSL ranks #839 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FOSL compare to ELA and MOV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), FOSL carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 56.1%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $295.5M) and MOV (Movado Group Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $706.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOSL?

Per FOSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000883569), Fossil Group Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (-12.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$60.5M in free cash flow against $689.3M in total assets and $201.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FOSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOSL last traded at $6.85 (+3.01% on volume of 503,945 shares), positioning the stock +12.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.07) and +41.82% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.83). Across its 52-week range of $1.70 to $7.39, FOSL sits at the 90.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($6.13 to $7.57).

FOSL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are FOSL insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies FOSL leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: FOSL RQD Cockpit FOSL 12M Forecast FOSL Earnings & Move FOSL Dividends & DRIP FOSL Insiders & 13F FOSL Whale Options FOSL Profit Sankey FOSL News & Why