MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FMAO Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$37.11 +1.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.14
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $510.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.14 (+0.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMAO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FMAO SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 97% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$34.55+2.2% Next Q
59
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$35.32+3.5% Next Q
62
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$36.54+1.6% Next Q
64
CurrentGrade C+$37.11+1.6% Hist 90D α
67
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMAO Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, FMAO faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.16) or 200D SMA ($30.04) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.61) toward Bear Floor ($30.12).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMAO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FMAO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FMAO Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) advanced +1.48% to $37.11, trading at 97% of its 52-week range ($22.91 – $37.6). Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 15x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 97% of its 52-week range ($22.91 – $37.6) with RSI-14 at 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.9% around $37.11 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $35.0M annual free cash flow.
Live FMAO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FMAO Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FMAO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $37.00H $37.27L $36.41C $37.11VOL 48.9K
RES: $37.75SUP: $34.38SMA50: $35.16SMA200: $30.04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FMAO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMAO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMAO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMAO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMAO)
Financials Rank #256 of 1096
⚔️ NRIM vs FMAO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMAO vs. NRIM, PDLB, KRNY, WSBF)
Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) ranks #256 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #700 by equity capitalization ($510.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRIM leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while NRIM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NRIM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with FMAO at 67/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMAO
ACTIVE
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 15.3x | — | 9.0% | +1.48% | $510.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| NRIM Northrim BanCorp Inc | B+ | 77/100 | 8.3x | — | 19.8% | +0.83% | $537.9M | /nrim-vs-fmao → |
| PDLB Ponce Financial Group Inc. | C | 65/100 | 19.9x | — | 5.1% | +1.21% | $548.6M | /pdlb-vs-fmao → |
| KRNY Kearny Financial Corp | D+ | 52/100 | 23.0x | — | 3.4% | +0.11% | $599.3M | /krny-vs-fmao → |
| WSBF Waterstone Financial Inc. (MD) | D+ | 58/100 | 13.5x | — | 7.6% | +0.30% | $356.5M | /wsbf-vs-fmao → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000792966In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $33.3M, operating cash flow of $36.7M, and free cash flow of $35.0M (+14.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMAO closed FY2025 with $3.43B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $33.3M | $36.7M | $35.0M | $3.43B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $25.9M | $32.5M | $30.6M | $3.36B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $22.8M | $22.1M | $22.1M | — | — |
3. FMAO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FMAO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FMAO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $37.11 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $510.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FMAO ranks #256 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FMAO compare to NRIM and PDLB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FMAO carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $537.9M) and PDLB (Ponce Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 19.9x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $548.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMAO?
Per FMAO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000792966), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $33.3M in net income, and $35.0M in free cash flow against $3.43B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FMAO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FMAO last traded at $37.11 (+1.48% on volume of 62,241 shares), positioning the stock +5.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($35.16) and +23.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.04). Across its 52-week range of $22.91 to $37.60, FMAO sits at the 96.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($34.92 to $39.30).
FMAO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FMAO stock moving today?
Why FMAO Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 15x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.