Stock Ratings / Financials / FMAO / earnings

NRIM (77) PDLB (65) KRNY (52) WSBF (58) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.9% Move

$37.11 +1.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.14

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $510.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.14 (+0.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMAO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FMAO SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 97% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$34.55+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$35.32+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$36.54+1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$37.11+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMAO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, FMAO faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.16) or 200D SMA ($30.04) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.61) toward Bear Floor ($30.12).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMAO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FMAO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.9% Swing Band

±$2.19 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FMAO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $2.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$33.3M	$35.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$25.9M	$30.6M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$22.8M	$22.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FMAO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FMAO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FMAO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $37.00H $37.27L $36.41C $37.11VOL 48.9K

RES: $37.75SUP: $34.38SMA50: $35.16SMA200: $30.04

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FMAO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FMAO Butterfly Map → + Track FMAO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMAO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMAO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMAO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMAO)

Financials Rank #256 of 1096 ⚔️ NRIM vs FMAO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMAO vs. NRIM, PDLB, KRNY, WSBF)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) ranks #256 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #700 by equity capitalization ($510.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRIM leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while NRIM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NRIM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with FMAO at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FMAO ACTIVE Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	15.3x	—	9.0%	+1.48%	$510.7M	Benchmark Subject
NRIM Northrim BanCorp Inc	B+	77/100	8.3x	—	19.8%	+0.83%	$537.9M	/nrim-vs-fmao →
PDLB Ponce Financial Group Inc.	C	65/100	19.9x	—	5.1%	+1.21%	$548.6M	/pdlb-vs-fmao →
KRNY Kearny Financial Corp	D+	52/100	23.0x	—	3.4%	+0.11%	$599.3M	/krny-vs-fmao →
WSBF Waterstone Financial Inc. (MD)	D+	58/100	13.5x	—	7.6%	+0.30%	$356.5M	/wsbf-vs-fmao →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000792966

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $33.3M, operating cash flow of $36.7M, and free cash flow of $35.0M (+14.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMAO closed FY2025 with $3.43B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$33.3M	$36.7M	$35.0M	$3.43B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$25.9M	$32.5M	$30.6M	$3.36B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$22.8M	$22.1M	$22.1M	—	—

3. FMAO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FMAO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FMAO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $37.11 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $510.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FMAO ranks #256 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FMAO compare to NRIM and PDLB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FMAO carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $537.9M) and PDLB (Ponce Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 19.9x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $548.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMAO?

Per FMAO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000792966), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $33.3M in net income, and $35.0M in free cash flow against $3.43B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FMAO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FMAO last traded at $37.11 (+1.48% on volume of 62,241 shares), positioning the stock +5.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($35.16) and +23.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.04). Across its 52-week range of $22.91 to $37.60, FMAO sits at the 96.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($34.92 to $39.30).

FMAO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is FMAO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is FMAO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.9% event move for FMAO, spanning a range between $34.92 and $39.3.

Direct Sub-Reports: FMAO RQD Cockpit FMAO 12M Forecast FMAO Earnings & Move FMAO Dividends & DRIP FMAO Insiders & 13F FMAO Whale Options FMAO Profit Sankey FMAO News & Why