MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FF Stock slipped -1.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.69 -1.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.66
FutureFuel Corp. (FF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $249.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.66 (-0.53%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FF SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$5.22+6.9% Next Q
27
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$5.58+2.3% Next Q
30
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$5.71-0.4% Next Q
32
CurrentGrade D-$5.69-8.5% Hist 90D α
35
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FF Turnaround Squeeze
While FF currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.38) and Max Pain ($5.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.34.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FF Stock slipped -1.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
FutureFuel Corp. (FF) slipped -1.90% to $5.69, trading at 67% of its 52-week range ($3.09 – $6.99). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 67% of its 52-week range ($3.09 – $6.99) with RSI-14 at 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8% around $5.69 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live FF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FF)
- ✓Walkthrough of FF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.26%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $5.66H $5.75L $5.59C $5.69VOL 212.9K
RES: $6.06SUP: $5.19SMA50: $5.38SMA200: $4.58
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -60.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FF)
Materials Rank #240 of 270
⚔️ ALTO vs FF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (FF vs. ALTO, GEVO, LTBR, OEC)
Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) ranks #240 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #204 by equity capitalization ($249.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.2% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. OEC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with FF at 35/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF
ACTIVE
FutureFuel Corp. | D- | 35/100 | — | -30.0% | -35.0% | -1.90% | $249.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| ALTO Alto Ingredients Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | 3.8% | 2.0% | -0.27% | $283.1M | /alto-vs-ff → |
| GEVO Gevo Inc. | E | 29/100 | — | — | -2.9% | -0.82% | $299.2M | /gevo-vs-ff → |
| LTBR Lightbridge Corporation | D- | 41/100 | — | — | -9.1% | -0.73% | $202.3M | /ltbr-vs-ff → |
| OEC Orion S.A. | D+ | 52/100 | — | 19.9% | 2.2% | +1.28% | $313.1M | /oec-vs-ff → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001337298In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FutureFuel Corp. (FF) reported GAAP revenue of $95.7M (-60.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $243.3M , and -74.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$49.4M, operating cash flow of -$28.7M, and free cash flow of -$46.0M (-553.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, FF closed FY2025 with $200.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.84, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $95.7M | -$49.4M | -$28.7M | -$46.0M | $200.3M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $243.3M | $15.5M | $24.8M | $10.1M | $247.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $368.3M | $37.4M | $21.3M | $21.3M | — | — |
3. FF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, FutureFuel Corp. (NYSE: FF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $5.69 (-1.90% 1D, market cap $249.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, FF ranks #240 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FF compare to ALTO and GEVO in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), FF carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALTO (Alto Ingredients Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.0%, cap $283.1M) and GEVO (Gevo Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $299.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FF?
Per FF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001337298), FutureFuel Corp. generated $95.7M in revenue (-60.7% YoY), -$49.4M in net income, and -$46.0M in free cash flow against $200.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FF last traded at $5.69 (-1.90% on volume of 478,513 shares), positioning the stock +5.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.38) and +24.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.58). Across its 52-week range of $3.09 to $6.99, FF sits at the 66.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($5.23 to $6.15).
FF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FF stock moving today?
Why FF Stock slipped -1.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.