MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
Why FCF Stock advanced +0.91% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$21.02 +0.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.01
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.04B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is FCF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE: FCF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $21.02 (+0.91% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FCF ranks #317 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does FCF compare to CHCO and TBBK in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FCF carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, CHCO (City Holding Company) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 15.5x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $2.02B) and TBBK (The Bancorp Inc) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 33.1%, cap $2.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TBBK leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while TBBK leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCF?
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Per FCF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712537), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $152.3M in net income, and $171.5M in free cash flow against $12.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.01 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FCF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FCF SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($171.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$19.89+2.3% Next Q
57
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$20.34+3.7% Next Q
60
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$21.10-0.4% Next Q
62
CurrentGrade C$21.02+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FCF Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, FCF faces multiple-compression risk if 13.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.73) or 200D SMA ($19.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.68) toward Bear Floor ($16.91).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FCF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FCF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FCF Stock advanced +0.91% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) advanced +0.91% to $21.02, trading at 82% of its 52-week range ($15 – $22.34). Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 82% of its 52-week range ($15 – $22.34) with RSI-14 at 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.7% around $21.02 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $171.5M annual free cash flow.
Live FCF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 8h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FCF Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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FCF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.18%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $21.19H $21.22L $20.89C $21.02VOL 842.6K
RES: $21.36SUP: $19.64SMA50: $20.73SMA200: $19.44
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FCF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FCF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FCF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FCF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FCF)
Financials Rank #317 of 1096
⚔️ CHCO vs FCF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FCF vs. CHCO, TBBK, HTH, SRCE)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) ranks #317 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #425 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TBBK leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while TBBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TBBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with FCF at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF
ACTIVE
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | C | 65/100 | 13.4x | — | 9.8% | +0.91% | $2.04B | Benchmark Subject |
| CHCO City Holding Company | B | 73/100 | 15.5x | — | 16.1% | +1.03% | $2.02B | /chco-vs-fcf → |
| TBBK The Bancorp Inc | B | 75/100 | 9.0x | — | 33.1% | +0.20% | $2.06B | /tbbk-vs-fcf → |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | D- | 40/100 | 12.7x | — | 7.7% | +1.58% | $2.12B | /hth-vs-fcf → |
| SRCE 1st Source Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | +0.97% | $2.13B | /srce-vs-fcf → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000712537In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $152.3M, operating cash flow of $187.5M, and free cash flow of $171.5M (+50.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FCF closed FY2025 with $12.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $152.3M | $187.5M | $171.5M | $12.34B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $142.6M | $129.5M | $113.9M | $11.58B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $157.1M | $150.8M | $150.8M | — | — |
3. FCF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FCF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE: FCF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $21.02 (+0.91% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FCF ranks #317 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FCF compare to CHCO and TBBK in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FCF carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, CHCO (City Holding Company) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 15.5x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $2.02B) and TBBK (The Bancorp Inc) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 33.1%, cap $2.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TBBK leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while TBBK leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCF?
Per FCF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712537), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $152.3M in net income, and $171.5M in free cash flow against $12.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FCF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FCF last traded at $21.02 (+0.91% on volume of 998,636 shares), positioning the stock +1.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.73) and +8.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.44). Across its 52-week range of $15.00 to $22.34, FCF sits at the 82.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.7% ($20.24 to $21.80).
FCF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FCF stock moving today?
Why FCF Stock advanced +0.91% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.