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First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$21.02 +0.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.01

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.04B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.01 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FCF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FCF SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($171.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$19.89+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$20.34+3.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$21.10-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$21.02+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FCF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, FCF faces multiple-compression risk if 13.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.73) or 200D SMA ($19.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.68) toward Bear Floor ($16.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FCF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FCF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FCF Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $21.02: 475.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $16.91

$8,045

$-1,955 (-19.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $21.68

$10,314

+$314 (+3.1%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.58

$12,169

+$2,169 (+21.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$23	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$24	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$19	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FCF Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FCF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.18%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $21.19H $21.22L $20.89C $21.02VOL 842.6K

RES: $21.36SUP: $19.64SMA50: $20.73SMA200: $19.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FCF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FCF Butterfly Map → + Track FCF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FCF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FCF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FCF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FCF)

Financials Rank #317 of 1096 ⚔️ CHCO vs FCF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FCF vs. CHCO, TBBK, HTH, SRCE)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) ranks #317 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #425 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TBBK leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while TBBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TBBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with FCF at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FCF ACTIVE First Commonwealth Financial Corporation	C	65/100	13.4x	—	9.8%	+0.91%	$2.04B	Benchmark Subject
CHCO City Holding Company	B	73/100	15.5x	—	16.1%	+1.03%	$2.02B	/chco-vs-fcf →
TBBK The Bancorp Inc	B	75/100	9.0x	—	33.1%	+0.20%	$2.06B	/tbbk-vs-fcf →
HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc.	D-	40/100	12.7x	—	7.7%	+1.58%	$2.12B	/hth-vs-fcf →
SRCE 1st Source Corporation	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+0.97%	$2.13B	/srce-vs-fcf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000712537

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $152.3M, operating cash flow of $187.5M, and free cash flow of $171.5M (+50.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FCF closed FY2025 with $12.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$152.3M	$187.5M	$171.5M	$12.34B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$142.6M	$129.5M	$113.9M	$11.58B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$157.1M	$150.8M	$150.8M	—	—

3. FCF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FCF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE: FCF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $21.02 (+0.91% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FCF ranks #317 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FCF compare to CHCO and TBBK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FCF carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, CHCO (City Holding Company) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 15.5x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $2.02B) and TBBK (The Bancorp Inc) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 33.1%, cap $2.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TBBK leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while TBBK leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCF?

Per FCF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712537), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $152.3M in net income, and $171.5M in free cash flow against $12.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FCF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FCF last traded at $21.02 (+0.91% on volume of 998,636 shares), positioning the stock +1.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.73) and +8.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.44). Across its 52-week range of $15.00 to $22.34, FCF sits at the 82.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.7% ($20.24 to $21.80).

FCF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FCF's 12-month stock price target?

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $21.68 (+3.1% from $21.02), with a bull-case target of $25.58 and a bear-case floor of $16.91.

Is FCF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FCF C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 65/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FCF RQD Cockpit FCF 12M Forecast FCF Earnings & Move FCF Dividends & DRIP FCF Insiders & 13F FCF Whale Options FCF Profit Sankey FCF News & Why