MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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Why EAF Stock slipped -1.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.05 -1.07% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.00
GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $324.1M
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Is EAF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE: EAF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (-1.07% 1D, market cap $324.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EAF ranks #183 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does EAF compare to NPWR and BLDP in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), EAF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.1%, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, NPWR (NET Power Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $188.0M) and BLDP (Ballard Power Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $561.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while EAF leads on capital efficiency (-7.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EAF?
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Per EAF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000931148), GrafTech International Ltd. generated $504.1M in revenue (-6.4% YoY), -$219.8M in net income, and -$120.5M in free cash flow against $1.03B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.00 (-0.38%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EAF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EAF SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (33% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 48% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$9.11-22.1% Next Q
32
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$7.10+19.9% Next Q
35
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$8.51+41.6% Next Q
37
CurrentGrade D-$12.05-7.4% Hist 90D α
40
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EAF Turnaround Squeeze
While EAF currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.35) and Max Pain ($12.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.71.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EAF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EAF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why EAF Stock slipped -1.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) slipped -1.07% to $12.05, trading at 48% of its 52-week range ($4.92 – $19.72). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 48% of its 52-week range ($4.92 – $19.72) with RSI-14 at 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $12.05 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live EAF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 10h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 12h ago
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EAF)
- ✓Walkthrough of EAF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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EAF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $11.65H $12.05L $11.53C $12.05VOL 389.1K
RES: $12.41SUP: $6.22SMA50: $8.35SMA200: $8.40
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
EAF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EAF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EAF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EAF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EAF)
Energy Rank #183 of 211
⚔️ NPWR vs EAF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EAF vs. NPWR, BLDP, FCEL, EROC)
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) ranks #183 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #166 by equity capitalization ($324.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EAF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while EAF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -7.3% ROIC and -3.1% gross margin. BLDP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with EAF at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAF
ACTIVE
GrafTech International Ltd. | D- | 40/100 | — | -3.1% | -7.3% | -1.07% | $324.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| NPWR NET Power Inc. (Class A) | D | 44/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -6.46% | $188.0M | /npwr-vs-eaf → |
| BLDP Ballard Power Systems Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -1.24% | $561.7M | /bldp-vs-eaf → |
| FCEL FuelCell Energy Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | -16.7% | -35.0% | -1.62% | $973.8M | /fcel-vs-eaf → |
| EROC ERock Inc. (Class A) | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | -0.33% | $1.97B | /eroc-vs-eaf → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000931148In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) reported GAAP revenue of $504.1M (-6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $538.8M , and -18.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$219.8M, operating cash flow of -$81.6M, and free cash flow of -$120.5M (-62.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EAF closed FY2025 with $1.03B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $504.1M | -$219.8M | -$81.6M | -$120.5M | $1.03B | $1.09B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $538.8M | -$131.2M | -$40.1M | -$74.4M | $1.22B | $1.09B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $620.5M | -$255.3M | $76.6M | $76.6M | — | — |
3. EAF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs EAF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE: EAF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (-1.07% 1D, market cap $324.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EAF ranks #183 in composite RQD confidence.
How does EAF compare to NPWR and BLDP in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), EAF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -3.1%, and ROIC of -7.3%. By comparison, NPWR (NET Power Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $188.0M) and BLDP (Ballard Power Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $561.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EAF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while EAF leads on capital efficiency (-7.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EAF?
Per EAF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000931148), GrafTech International Ltd. generated $504.1M in revenue (-6.4% YoY), -$219.8M in net income, and -$120.5M in free cash flow against $1.03B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is EAF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
EAF last traded at $12.05 (-1.07% on volume of 560,154 shares), positioning the stock +44.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.35) and +43.45% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.40). Across its 52-week range of $4.92 to $19.72, EAF sits at the 48.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.54 to $13.56).
EAF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is EAF stock moving today?
Why EAF Stock slipped -1.07% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.