Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$59.14 +1.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $59.22

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.99B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (NYSE: DBD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $59.14 (+1.84% 1D, market cap $1.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, DBD ranks #226 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DBD compare to PBI and NATL in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Office Equipment/Supplies/Services), DBD carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.0x, gross margin of 25.3%, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, PBI (Pitney Bowes Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC —, cap $2.26B) and NATL (NCR Atleos Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 14.4%, cap $3.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PBI leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while NATL leads on capital efficiency (14.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DBD?
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Per DBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000028823), Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated generated $3.81B in revenue (+1.5% YoY), $94.6M in net income, and $300.7M in free cash flow against $3.85B in total assets and $938.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $59.22 (+0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 7.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (4)SEC (12)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$97 Bull$58 Base$45 Bear
📬 FREE DBD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DBD SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.79 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$63.26+6.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$67.57+1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$68.82-14.1% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$59.14-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DBD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DBD currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($64.94) and Max Pain ($62.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $96.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±8.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (DBD)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for DBD.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DBD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DBD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.81%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $58.07H $59.14L $58.07C $59.14VOL 685.8K
RES: $105.6SUP: $53.15SMA50: $64.94SMA200: $74.91
$94.82$83.45$72.08$60.71$49.34RES $105.6SUP $53.15$59.142026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
14.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DBD)

Industrials Rank #226 of 485 ⚔️ PBI vs DBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (DBD vs. PBI, NATL, VYX, PAR)

Industry: Office Equipment/Supplies/Services (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) ranks #226 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #211 by equity capitalization ($1.99B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PBI leads on earnings valuation at 15.6x trailing P/E, while NATL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.4% ROIC and — gross margin. PBI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with DBD at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DBD ACTIVE
Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
D+ 52/100 21.0x 25.3% 11.5% +1.84% $1.99B Benchmark Subject
PBI
Pitney Bowes Inc.
C 64/100 15.6x — — -5.62% $2.26B /pbi-vs-dbd →
NATL
NCR Atleos Corporation
D+ 55/100 20.9x — 14.4% +0.93% $3.38B /natl-vs-dbd →
VYX
NCR Voyix Corporation
E 31/100 18.3x — 1.1% +3.27% $1.13B /vyx-vs-dbd →
PAR
PAR Technology Corporation
E 31/100 — 43.5% -4.9% +3.55% $736.3M /par-vs-dbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000028823

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) reported GAAP revenue of $3.81B (+1.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.75B ) , GAAP net income of $94.6M, operating cash flow of $300.7M, and free cash flow of $300.7M (+101.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, DBD closed FY2025 with $3.85B in total assets against $938.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.79, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.81B $94.6M $300.7M $300.7M $3.85B $938.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.75B -$16.5M $149.2M $149.2M $3.54B $927.3M

3. DBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (NYSE: DBD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $59.14 (+1.84% 1D, market cap $1.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, DBD ranks #226 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DBD compare to PBI and NATL in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Office Equipment/Supplies/Services), DBD carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.0x, gross margin of 25.3%, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, PBI (Pitney Bowes Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC —, cap $2.26B) and NATL (NCR Atleos Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 14.4%, cap $3.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PBI leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while NATL leads on capital efficiency (14.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DBD?

Per DBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000028823), Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated generated $3.81B in revenue (+1.5% YoY), $94.6M in net income, and $300.7M in free cash flow against $3.85B in total assets and $938.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DBD last traded at $59.14 (+1.84% on volume of 685,821 shares), positioning the stock -8.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($64.94) and -21.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($74.91). Across its 52-week range of $52.87 to $92.08, DBD sits at the 16.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($54.35 to $63.93).

DBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is DBD's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for DBD.

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