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Stock Ratings / Industrials / CYD / forecast
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China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$22.45 -3.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.27

China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $872.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CYD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CYD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE: CYD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $22.45 (-3.48% 1D, market cap $872.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CYD ranks #300 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CYD compare to GHM and KRNT in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), CYD carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GHM (Graham Corporation) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 67.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $841.4M) and KRNT (Kornit Digital Ltd.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $780.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GHM leads on earnings multiple (67.3x) while GHM leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CYD?
▼

For China Yuchai International Limited (CYD), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #300 in Industrials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.27 (-0.82%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target
$65 Bull$21 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE CYD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CYD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CYD SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.6% FCF Margin ($24.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$28.16-8.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$25.89-10.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
48
Grade D$23.28-3.6% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$22.45-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CYD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CYD currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($31.65) and Max Pain ($23.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $64.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CYD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CYD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CYD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $22.45: 445.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $16.49
$7,345
$-2,655 (-26.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $21.14
$9,416
$-584 (-5.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $64.55
$28,753
+$18,753 (+187.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$6169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CYD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CYD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CYD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.73%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $24.00H $24.00L $22.45C $22.45VOL 92.1K
RES: $37.02SUP: $25.72SMA50: $31.65SMA200: $42.71
$64.24$52.80$41.36$29.91$18.47RES $37.02SUP $25.72$22.452026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CYD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CYD Butterfly Map → + Track CYD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CYD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CYD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CYD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CYD)

Industrials Rank #300 of 485 ⚔️ GHM vs CYD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CYD vs. GHM, KRNT, ENVX, MLAB)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) ranks #300 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #262 by equity capitalization ($872.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GHM leads on earnings valuation at 67.3x trailing P/E, while GHM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and 23.5% gross margin. MLAB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with CYD at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CYD ACTIVE
China Yuchai International Limited
D 45/100 — — — -3.48% $872.7M Benchmark Subject
GHM
Graham Corporation
D- 37/100 67.3x 23.5% 10.9% -2.43% $841.4M /ghm-vs-cyd →
KRNT
Kornit Digital Ltd.
D 51/100 — 44.3% -4.0% -3.58% $780.7M /krnt-vs-cyd →
ENVX
Enovix Corporation
E 25/100 — 19.2% -20.5% -10.26% $770.3M /envx-vs-cyd →
MLAB
Mesa Laboratories Inc.
C 63/100 110.9x 63.5% 9.3% -3.92% $744.4M /mlab-vs-cyd →

2. CYD Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) operates in Industrial Machinery/Components (Industrials) with an equity capitalization of $872.7M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. CYD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CYD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE: CYD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $22.45 (-3.48% 1D, market cap $872.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CYD ranks #300 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CYD compare to GHM and KRNT in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), CYD carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GHM (Graham Corporation) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 67.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $841.4M) and KRNT (Kornit Digital Ltd.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $780.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GHM leads on earnings multiple (67.3x) while GHM leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CYD?

For China Yuchai International Limited (CYD), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #300 in Industrials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CYD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CYD last traded at $22.45 (-3.48% on volume of 137,695 shares), positioning the stock -29.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($31.65) and -47.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($42.71). Across its 52-week range of $22.02 to $61.48, CYD sits at the 1.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.3 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($20.12 to $24.78).

CYD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CYD's 12-month stock price target?

China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $21.14 (-5.8% from $22.45), with a bull-case target of $64.55 and a bear-case floor of $16.49.

Is CYD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CYD D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 45/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: CYD RQD Cockpit CYD 12M Forecast CYD Earnings & Move CYD Dividends & DRIP CYD Insiders & 13F CYD Whale Options CYD Profit Sankey CYD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CYD — China Yuchai International Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:14:38Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CYD scores 45 out of 100, graded D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 0% and FCF yield of 0%. For an investor, this pillar indicates the business is not currently generating measurable returns on capital or free cash flow relative to its valuation, which removes a primary source of intrinsic support.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. Scored on institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the weakest pillar, indicating little evidence in the source data of institutional buying conviction.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. Scored on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The below-midpoint score suggests insider and disclosed-trade signals do not provide meaningful confirmation of optimism.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 8 / 20. Scored on beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock moves in line with the broader market; the score reflects limited regime-specific tailwinds in the rating's assessment.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating a moderately sound balance sheet relative to the others, though not a strength sufficient to offset weak cash generation.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating's overall message is that the upside case rests more on balance-sheet stability than on earnings or cash-flow momentum. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess: EV/EBITDA, P/E, and EPS are not available in source data, so the investor cannot benchmark the current $23.26 price against earnings. The stock trades at $23.26 within a 52-week range of $22.02 to $61.48, meaning it sits near the bottom of its trailing range, which the rating's distribution warning reflects.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, five items reference CYD, all flagged YELLOW with the impact label MARKET WIRE:

  • A Seeking Alpha item titled "Worth A Bet Despite The Recent Decline" (1h ago) frames the decline as a possible entry point.
  • A TradingView estimates item (3h ago) with no further detail in source data.
  • A MarketBeat item reporting a 7.4% stock price decline with the question "Should You Sell?" (6h ago).
  • A Seeking Alpha item titled "A Second Buying Opportunity, But A Different Investment Thesis" (9h ago).
  • A Stock Titan item (12h ago) reporting a new venture in Guangxi to heat-treat iron for car parts, with Yuchai Foundry holding 34%.
  • A MarketBeat item reporting a consensus target price of $60.00 (15h ago).

Risk watch items: the MarketBeat decline report and the consensus target of $60.00 sitting far above the $23.26 price are the most notable divergences. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only identified ripple is the Guangxi heat-treatment venture referenced in the Stock Titan item, which points to a Yuchai Foundry venture in automotive parts, but its supply-chain linkages are not available in source data.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data is NONE. Per the source, the only consensus figure appears in a news headline: a consensus target price of $60.00 (MarketBeat, 15h ago). No consensus rating, analyst count, or price-target distribution is available in source data. Holder data is NONE; no SEC Form 4 insider, 13F institutional, or Congressional trade records are available in source data. The Roarable RQD rating's whale and insider pillars (3/20 and 9/20) reflect this limited ownership-flow evidence.

Open Questions

  • What are CYD's revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow across reported periods? Financials are NONE in source data.
  • Why does ROIC register at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, and are these true zeros or missing-data placeholders?
  • What is the consensus rating and analyst price-target distribution behind the $60.00 target headline?
  • Which institutional holders and insiders have traded CYD recently, and in which direction?
  • What is the commercial scale and customer base of the Guangxi heat-treatment venture relative to the company as a whole?

CYD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CYD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CYD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.45?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CYD 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CYD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.47 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CYD (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $23.26?

Welcome to the CYD (China Yuchai International Limited) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.84 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $23.26

Pump the brakes on CYD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CYD, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless China Yuchai International Limited expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.38 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $23.26

CYD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CYD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $23.26 (52-wk range $22.02 - $61.48), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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