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Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$21.54 +2.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.60

Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.17B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.60 (+0.29%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTRI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CTRI SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.34 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$20.90-5.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$19.73-2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$19.34+11.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$21.54-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CTRI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CTRI currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.35) and Max Pain ($22.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $45.14.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTRI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CTRI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

60.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.34>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE12% OF RANGE

L: $19$21.54H: $43

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on CTRI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

5.0% ROIC with 8.3% gross margin and -0.38% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 2.34 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CTRI

✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Priced at 97x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTRI)

✓Walkthrough of CTRI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CTRI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.71%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $20.97H $21.65L $20.89C $21.54VOL 1.23M

RES: $18.69SUP: $16.30SMA50: $20.35SMA200: $27.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTRI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTRI Butterfly Map → + Track CTRI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTRI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTRI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTRI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTRI)

Energy Rank #160 of 211 ⚔️ VET vs CTRI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (CTRI vs. VET, BKV, NEXT, EROK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI) ranks #160 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #115 by equity capitalization ($2.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKV leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while BKV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.0% ROIC and — gross margin. VET currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with CTRI at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CTRI ACTIVE Centuri Holdings Inc.	D	47/100	97.1x	8.3%	5.0%	+2.67%	$2.17B	Benchmark Subject
VET Vermilion Energy Inc. Common (Canada)	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-0.95%	$2.07B	/vet-vs-ctri →
BKV BKV Corporation	D	49/100	12.8x	—	9.0%	-1.09%	$2.29B	/bkv-vs-ctri →
NEXT NextDecade Corporation	D-	39/100	—	—	-2.1%	+11.52%	$1.93B	/next-vs-ctri →
EROK EagleRock Land LLC representing limited liability company interests (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	-1.69%	$2.68B	/erok-vs-ctri →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001981599

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI) reported GAAP revenue of $2.98B (+13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.64B , and +2.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $22.4M, operating cash flow of $78.1M, and free cash flow of -$8.2M (-113.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTRI closed FY2025 with $2.41B in total assets against $708.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.34, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$2.98B	$22.4M	$78.1M	-$8.2M	$2.41B	$708.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$2.64B	-$6.7M	$158.2M	$58.9M	$2.07B	$843.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.90B	-$186.2M	$167.5M	$167.5M	—	—

3. CTRI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTRI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Centuri Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CTRI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $21.54 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $2.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, CTRI ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTRI compare to VET and BKV in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), CTRI carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 97.1x, gross margin of 8.3%, and ROIC of 5.0%. By comparison, VET (Vermilion Energy Inc. Common (Canada)) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.07B) and BKV (BKV Corporation) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 12.8x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKV leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while BKV leads on capital efficiency (9.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTRI?

Per CTRI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001981599), Centuri Holdings Inc. generated $2.98B in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $22.4M in net income, and -$8.2M in free cash flow against $2.41B in total assets and $708.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTRI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTRI last traded at $21.54 (+2.67% on volume of 3,652,407 shares), positioning the stock +5.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.35) and -21.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.39). Across its 52-week range of $18.60 to $42.99, CTRI sits at the 12.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($19.69 to $23.39).

CTRI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell CTRI stock right now?

Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 47/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 97x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is CTRI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CTRI's 12-month base price target is $20.47 (range $15.97 to $45.14), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: CTRI RQD Cockpit CTRI 12M Forecast CTRI Earnings & Move CTRI Dividends & DRIP CTRI Insiders & 13F CTRI Whale Options CTRI Profit Sankey CTRI News & Why