MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why CTBI Stock advanced +0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$70.10 +0.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.39
Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B- • BUY
Cap $1.27B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.39 (+0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTBI SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 66% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade A-$74.16+1.2% Next Q
78
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B+$75.08-6.1% Next Q
75
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$70.50-0.6% Next Q
73
CurrentGrade B-$70.10+6.6% Hist 90D α
70
Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTBI Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, CTBI faces multiple-compression risk if 13.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($74.86) or 200D SMA ($68.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($73.89) toward Bear Floor ($57.48).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CTBI Stock advanced +0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) advanced +0.97% to $70.10, trading at 66% of its 52-week range ($50.68 – $79.92). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 66% of its 52-week range ($50.68 – $79.92) with RSI-14 at 35.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.5% around $70.10 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $97.4M annual free cash flow.
Live CTBI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CTBI Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CTBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.96%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $70.69H $71.40L $68.76C $70.10VOL 140.8K
RES: $77.58SUP: $67.31SMA50: $74.86SMA200: $68.99
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CTBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
4.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTBI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTBI)
Financials Rank #150 of 1096
⚔️ OSBC vs CTBI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTBI vs. OSBC, HBT, MCB, FMBH)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) ranks #150 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #515 by equity capitalization ($1.27B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CTBI leads on earnings valuation at 13.0x trailing P/E, while HBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CTBI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTBI
ACTIVE
Community Trust Bancorp Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 13.0x | — | 11.5% | +0.97% | $1.27B | Benchmark Subject |
| OSBC Old Second Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 15.6x | — | 9.0% | +0.90% | $1.25B | /osbc-vs-ctbi → |
| HBT HBT Financial Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 17.4x | — | 12.5% | +1.10% | $1.34B | /hbt-vs-ctbi → |
| MCB Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. | C+ | 66/100 | 16.8x | — | 9.6% | -0.20% | $1.20B | /mcb-vs-ctbi → |
| FMBH First Mid Bancshares Inc. | C | 62/100 | 14.8x | — | 9.6% | +1.21% | $1.36B | /fmbh-vs-ctbi → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000350852In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $98.1M, operating cash flow of $105.0M, and free cash flow of $97.4M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTBI closed FY2025 with $6.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $98.1M | $105.0M | $97.4M | $6.68B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $82.8M | $105.3M | $97.2M | $6.19B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $78.0M | $85.8M | $85.8M | — | — |
3. CTBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CTBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CTBI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $70.10 (+0.97% 1D, market cap $1.27B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CTBI ranks #150 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CTBI compare to OSBC and HBT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CTBI carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.5%. By comparison, OSBC (Old Second Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.25B) and HBT (HBT Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 17.4x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $1.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTBI?
Per CTBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000350852), Community Trust Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $98.1M in net income, and $97.4M in free cash flow against $6.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CTBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CTBI last traded at $70.10 (+0.97% on volume of 166,467 shares), positioning the stock -6.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($74.86) and +1.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.99). Across its 52-week range of $50.68 to $79.92, CTBI sits at the 66.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($66.24 to $73.96).
CTBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CTBI stock moving today?
Why CTBI Stock advanced +0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support.