MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why COE Stock dropped -4.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.00 -4.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.88
51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) (COE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $66.1M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.88 (-1.08%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 10% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY COE SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10% FCF Margin ($9.5M FCF) & 73.9% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$12.22-7.2% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$11.34+3.4% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$11.73-6.2% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$11.00-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a COE Turnaround Squeeze
While COE currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Real Estate with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.31) and Max Pain ($11.55) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $53.01.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “COE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why COE Stock dropped -4.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) (COE) dropped -4.93% to $11.00, trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($9.93 – $50.49). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($9.93 – $50.49) with RSI-14 at 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $11.00 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 73.9% gross margin and $9.5M annual free cash flow.
Live COE Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring COE)
- ✓Walkthrough of COE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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COE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.67%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $10.93H $12.27L $10.93C $11.00VOL 149.4K
RES: $12.15SUP: $6.78SMA50: $12.31SMA200: $19.78
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
COE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +88.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COE today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COE)
Real Estate Rank #31 of 51
⚔️ IH vs COE Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (COE vs. IH, NRDY, CHGG, LFS)
Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, 51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) (COE) ranks #31 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #30 by equity capitalization ($66.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IH leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while IH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 67.9% gross margin. LFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with COE at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COE
ACTIVE
51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) | D | 48/100 | — | 73.9% | -35.0% | -4.93% | $66.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| IH iHuman Inc. each representing five (Class A) | C | 64/100 | 4.4x | 67.9% | 85.0% | +1.72% | $60.3M | /ih-vs-coe → |
| NRDY Nerdy Inc. (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | — | 58.0% | -35.0% | +2.95% | $75.9M | /nrdy-vs-coe → |
| CHGG Chegg Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 59.6% | -35.0% | -0.72% | $76.8M | /chgg-vs-coe → |
| LFS LEIFRAS Co. Ltd. | B- | 71/100 | 19.6x | 29.5% | 26.5% | 0.00% | $54.9M | /lfs-vs-coe → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001659494In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), 51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) (COE) reported GAAP revenue of $95.6M (+88.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $50.7M , and +252.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$16.8M, operating cash flow of $11.8M, and free cash flow of $9.5M (+72.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, COE closed FY2025 with $66.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $95.6M | -$16.8M | $11.8M | $9.5M | $66.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $50.7M | -$7.2M | $5.8M | $5.5M | $43.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $27.1M | -$15.0M | $559.0K | $559.0K | — | — |
3. COE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs COE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, 51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) (NYSE: COE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $11.00 (-4.93% 1D, market cap $66.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, COE ranks #31 in composite RQD confidence.
How does COE compare to IH and NRDY in the Real Estate sector?
Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), COE carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 73.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IH (iHuman Inc. each representing five (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $60.3M) and NRDY (Nerdy Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $75.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IH leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while IH leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COE?
Per COE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001659494), 51Talk Online Education Group each representing 60 (Class A) generated $95.6M in revenue (+88.6% YoY), -$16.8M in net income, and $9.5M in free cash flow against $66.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Real Estate with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is COE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
COE last traded at $11.00 (-4.93% on volume of 8,135 shares), positioning the stock -10.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.31) and -44.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.78). Across its 52-week range of $9.93 to $50.49, COE sits at the 2.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.62 to $12.38).
COE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is COE stock moving today?
Why COE Stock dropped -4.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.