Stock Ratings / Financials / CNOB / forecast

BY (61) OCFC (65) FSUN (60) RBCAA (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$32.61 +0.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.56

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.77B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.55 (-0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CNOB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CNOB SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.5% FCF Margin ($101.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$29.94+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$30.44+7.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$32.69-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$32.61+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CNOB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, CNOB faces multiple-compression risk if 22.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.31) or 200D SMA ($30.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.05) toward Bear Floor ($25.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CNOB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CNOB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CNOB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $32.61: 306.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $25.78

$7,906

$-2,094 (-20.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $33.05

$10,135

+$135 (+1.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $39.00

$11,960

+$1,960 (+19.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$34	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$37	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$29	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CNOB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CNOB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.60%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $32.73H $32.73L $31.96C $32.61VOL 238.5K

RES: $33.38SUP: $28.79SMA50: $31.31SMA200: $30.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CNOB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CNOB Butterfly Map → + Track CNOB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CNOB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CNOB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CNOB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CNOB)

Financials Rank #458 of 1096 ⚔️ BY vs CNOB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CNOB vs. BY, OCFC, FSUN, RBCAA)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) ranks #458 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #451 by equity capitalization ($1.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BY leads on earnings valuation at 13.5x trailing P/E, while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.9% ROIC and — gross margin. RBCAA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with CNOB at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CNOB ACTIVE ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.	C-	61/100	22.0x	—	5.1%	+0.12%	$1.77B	Benchmark Subject
BY Byline Bancorp Inc.	C-	61/100	13.5x	—	10.3%	+0.75%	$1.76B	/by-vs-cnob →
OCFC OceanFirst Financial Corp.	C	65/100	26.1x	—	4.0%	+0.74%	$1.75B	/ocfc-vs-cnob →
FSUN FirstSun Capital Bancorp	C-	60/100	18.3x	—	8.5%	+0.69%	$1.79B	/fsun-vs-cnob →
RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc. (Class A)	B	72/100	13.7x	—	11.9%	+0.30%	$1.80B	/rbcaa-vs-cnob →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000712771

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $80.4M, operating cash flow of $106.4M, and free cash flow of $101.0M (+77.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CNOB closed FY2025 with $14.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$80.4M	$106.4M	$101.0M	$14.00B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$73.8M	$60.7M	$56.9M	$9.88B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$87.0M	$92.9M	$92.9M	—	—

3. CNOB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CNOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: CNOB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $32.61 (+0.12% 1D, market cap $1.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CNOB ranks #458 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CNOB compare to BY and OCFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CNOB carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, BY (Byline Bancorp Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 13.5x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $1.76B) and OCFC (OceanFirst Financial Corp.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $1.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BY leads on earnings multiple (13.5x) while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency (11.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CNOB?

Per CNOB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000712771), ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $80.4M in net income, and $101.0M in free cash flow against $14.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CNOB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CNOB last traded at $32.61 (+0.12% on volume of 278,079 shares), positioning the stock +4.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.31) and +8.48% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.06). Across its 52-week range of $23.20 to $34.14, CNOB sits at the 86.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($30.88 to $34.34).

CNOB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CNOB's 12-month stock price target?

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $33.05 (+1.3% from $32.61), with a bull-case target of $39 and a bear-case floor of $25.78.

Is CNOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CNOB C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 61/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: CNOB RQD Cockpit CNOB 12M Forecast CNOB Earnings & Move CNOB Dividends & DRIP CNOB Insiders & 13F CNOB Whale Options CNOB Profit Sankey CNOB News & Why