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Why CLW Stock slipped -1.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.98 -1.29% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.93
Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $209.5M
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CLW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is CLW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE: CLW) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $12.98 (-1.29% 1D, market cap $209.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CLW ranks #224 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CLW compare to MAGN and RYAM in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Paper), CLW carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 7.4%, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, MAGN (Magnera Corporation) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $432.5M) and RYAM (Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.3%, cap $452.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLVM leads on earnings multiple (9.7x) while SLVM leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CLW?
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Per CLW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001441236), Clearwater Paper Corporation generated $1.56B in revenue (+12.4% YoY), -$18.6M in net income, and -$76.5M in free cash flow against $1.59B in total assets and $345.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.93 (-0.42%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CLW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CLW SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (31% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.05 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 7.4% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$18.67-0.2% Next Q
40
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$18.63+3.2% Next Q
37
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$19.22-32.5% Next Q
35
CurrentGrade E$12.98-9.2% Hist 90D α
32
Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CLW Turnaround Squeeze
While CLW currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($19.44) and Max Pain ($13.63) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $24.77.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CLW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CLW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CLW Stock slipped -1.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) slipped -1.29% to $12.98, trading at 11% of its 52-week range ($11.73 – $23.59). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 11% of its 52-week range ($11.73 – $23.59) with RSI-14 at 22.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.7% around $12.98 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 7.4% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live CLW Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CLW)
- ✓Walkthrough of CLW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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CLW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.49%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $13.15H $13.15L $12.98C $12.98VOL 413.0K
RES: $20.71SUP: $16.78SMA50: $19.44SMA200: $17.02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CLW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +12.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CLW today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CLW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CLW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CLW)
Materials Rank #224 of 270
⚔️ MAGN vs CLW Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (CLW vs. MAGN, RYAM, MATV, SLVM)
Industry: Paper (7 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) ranks #224 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #210 by equity capitalization ($209.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLVM leads on earnings valuation at 9.7x trailing P/E, while SLVM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SLVM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with CLW at 32/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW
ACTIVE
Clearwater Paper Corporation | E | 32/100 | — | 7.4% | -2.9% | -1.29% | $209.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| MAGN Magnera Corporation | D- | 43/100 | — | 10.5% | 0.1% | +2.20% | $432.5M | /magn-vs-clw → |
| RYAM Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 8.1% | 1.3% | -0.74% | $452.5M | /ryam-vs-clw → |
| MATV Mativ Holdings Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | 18.3% | -21.2% | -0.97% | $620.9M | /matv-vs-clw → |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corporation | D+ | 57/100 | 9.7x | — | 20.5% | +1.32% | $1.29B | /slvm-vs-clw → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001441236In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) reported GAAP revenue of $1.56B (+12.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.38B , and +36.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.6M, operating cash flow of $12.3M, and free cash flow of -$76.5M (-38.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CLW closed FY2025 with $1.59B in total assets against $345.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.05, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.56B | -$18.6M | $12.3M | -$76.5M | $1.59B | $345.5M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.38B | $196.3M | $61.4M | -$55.2M | $1.68B | $281.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.14B | $107.7M | $190.7M | $190.7M | — | — |
3. CLW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CLW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE: CLW) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $12.98 (-1.29% 1D, market cap $209.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CLW ranks #224 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CLW compare to MAGN and RYAM in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Paper), CLW carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 7.4%, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, MAGN (Magnera Corporation) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $432.5M) and RYAM (Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.3%, cap $452.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLVM leads on earnings multiple (9.7x) while SLVM leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CLW?
Per CLW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001441236), Clearwater Paper Corporation generated $1.56B in revenue (+12.4% YoY), -$18.6M in net income, and -$76.5M in free cash flow against $1.59B in total assets and $345.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CLW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CLW last traded at $12.98 (-1.29% on volume of 412,969 shares), positioning the stock -33.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($19.44) and -23.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.02). Across its 52-week range of $11.73 to $23.59, CLW sits at the 10.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 22.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($11.46 to $14.50).
CLW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CLW stock moving today?
Why CLW Stock slipped -1.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.