CATALYSTBenzinga • 11d ago
Jefferies Upgrades Chagee Holdings to Buy, Raises Price Target to $14.9Jefferies analyst Lisa Liao upgrades Chagee Holdings (NASDAQ:CHA) from Hold to Buy and raises the price target from $11.8 to $14.9.
Why CHA Stock surged +2.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.02 +2.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.11
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B+ • BUY
Cap $2.29B
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Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.82% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #27 in composite RQD confidence.
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How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
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Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.11 (+0.75%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 9.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHA SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.5% FCF Margin ($175.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-7 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$11.25+9.3% Next Q
72
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B+$12.30+0.5% Next Q
75
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B+$12.36-2.8% Next Q
77
CurrentGrade B+$12.02+8.2% Hist 90D α
80
Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, CHA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.77) or 200D SMA ($11.14) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.21) toward Bear Floor ($9.86).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CHA Stock surged +2.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) surged +2.82% to $12.02, trading at 40% of its 52-week range ($8.98 – $16.56). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 40% of its 52-week range ($8.98 – $16.56) with RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.2% around $12.02 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $175.5M annual free cash flow.
Live CHA Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHA Tape Review)
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CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.29%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $12.13H $12.34L $12.00C $12.02VOL 922.7K
RES: $13.23SUP: $11.41SMA50: $11.77SMA200: $11.14
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #27 of 1011
⚔️ SHAK vs CHA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)
Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #27 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #400 by equity capitalization ($2.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA
ACTIVE
Chagee Holdings Limited | B+ | 80/100 | 13.7x | — | 85.0% | +2.82% | $2.29B | Benchmark Subject |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | D | 48/100 | 60.7x | — | 6.8% | +4.89% | $3.02B | /shak-vs-cha → |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc | C | 65/100 | 34.9x | 69.0% | 5.4% | +2.23% | $1.62B | /cbrl-vs-cha → |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 57/100 | 6.9x | 96.0% | 18.9% | -0.29% | $1.45B | /arco-vs-cha → |
| WEN Wendy's Company | D+ | 58/100 | 8.3x | 63.6% | 10.7% | +1.34% | $1.37B | /wen-vs-cha → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.85B | $167.5M | $235.1M | $175.5M | $1.64B | — |
3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.82% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #27 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CHA last traded at $12.02 (+2.82% on volume of 414,514 shares), positioning the stock +2.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.77) and +7.90% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.14). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 40.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($11.03 to $13.01).
CHA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CHA stock moving today?
Why CHA Stock surged +2.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support.