Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CHA / forecast

SHAK (48) CBRL (65) ARCO (57) WEN (58) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$12.02 +2.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.29B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CHA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $12.02: 831.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.86

$8,203

$-1,797 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $13.21

$10,990

+$990 (+9.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $17.39

$14,468

+$4,468 (+44.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$14	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	STRONG BUY	$16	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$12	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHA Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.29%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $12.13H $12.34L $12.00C $12.02VOL 922.7K

RES: $13.23SUP: $11.41SMA50: $11.77SMA200: $11.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHA Butterfly Map → + Track CHA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #27 of 1011 ⚔️ SHAK vs CHA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #27 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #400 by equity capitalization ($2.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CHA ACTIVE Chagee Holdings Limited	B+	80/100	13.7x	—	85.0%	+2.82%	$2.29B	Benchmark Subject
SHAK Shake Shack Inc.	D	48/100	60.7x	—	6.8%	+4.89%	$3.02B	/shak-vs-cha →
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc	C	65/100	34.9x	69.0%	5.4%	+2.23%	$1.62B	/cbrl-vs-cha →
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	6.9x	96.0%	18.9%	-0.29%	$1.45B	/arco-vs-cha →
WEN Wendy's Company	D+	58/100	8.3x	63.6%	10.7%	+1.34%	$1.37B	/wen-vs-cha →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.85B	$167.5M	$235.1M	$175.5M	$1.64B	—

3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.82% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #27 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?

Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHA last traded at $12.02 (+2.82% on volume of 414,514 shares), positioning the stock +2.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.77) and +7.90% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.14). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 40.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($11.03 to $13.01).

CHA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CHA's 12-month stock price target?

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $13.21 (+9.9% from $12.02), with a bull-case target of $17.39 and a bear-case floor of $9.86.