Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CHA / dividends

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Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$12.02 +2.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.11

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.29B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.11 (+0.75%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 9.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CHA SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.5% FCF Margin ($175.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-7 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$11.25+9.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$12.30+0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$12.36-2.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$12.02+8.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, CHA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.77) or 200D SMA ($11.14) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.21) toward Bear Floor ($9.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CHA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 80%NO 20%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

9.49% Total Yield

7.69% Cash ($0.92/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

68/100 • SAFE COVERAGE

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

65.3% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (14.4% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $38,394

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $3,644/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.4K

Yr 1

$13.1K

Yr 2

$15.0K

Yr 3

$17.1K

Yr 4

$19.6K

Yr 5

$22.4K

Yr 6

$25.6K

Yr 7

$29.3K

Yr 8

$33.6K

Yr 9

$38.4K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in CHA & A-Rated Leaders

✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on CHA and its top sector peer
✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CHA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.29%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $12.13H $12.34L $12.00C $12.02VOL 922.7K

RES: $13.23SUP: $11.41SMA50: $11.77SMA200: $11.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHA Butterfly Map → + Track CHA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #27 of 1011 ⚔️ SHAK vs CHA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #27 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #400 by equity capitalization ($2.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CHA ACTIVE Chagee Holdings Limited	B+	80/100	13.7x	—	85.0%	+2.82%	$2.29B	Benchmark Subject
SHAK Shake Shack Inc.	D	48/100	60.7x	—	6.8%	+4.89%	$3.02B	/shak-vs-cha →
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc	C	65/100	34.9x	69.0%	5.4%	+2.23%	$1.62B	/cbrl-vs-cha →
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	6.9x	96.0%	18.9%	-0.29%	$1.45B	/arco-vs-cha →
WEN Wendy's Company	D+	58/100	8.3x	63.6%	10.7%	+1.34%	$1.37B	/wen-vs-cha →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.85B	$167.5M	$235.1M	$175.5M	$1.64B	—

3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $12.02 (+2.82% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #27 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?

Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHA last traded at $12.02 (+2.82% on volume of 414,514 shares), positioning the stock +2.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.77) and +7.90% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.14). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 40.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($11.03 to $13.01).

CHA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does CHA pay a dividend and is it safe?

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) offers a 7.69% cash dividend yield ($0.92 annualized) and 9.49% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as SAFE COVERAGE.

Direct Sub-Reports: CHA RQD Cockpit CHA 12M Forecast CHA Earnings & Move CHA Dividends & DRIP CHA Insiders & 13F CHA Whale Options CHA Profit Sankey CHA News & Why