Stock Ratings / Financials / BCSF / earnings

FDUS (44) NMFC (59) SLRC (46) AIO (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.2% Move

$10.85 +2.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.88

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $703.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.87 (+0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCSF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BCSF SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 18% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$10.62-3.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$10.26-1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$10.07+7.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$10.85+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BCSF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, BCSF faces multiple-compression risk if 7.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.09) or 200D SMA ($12.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.95) toward Bear Floor ($8.54).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCSF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BCSF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.2% Swing Band

±$0.56 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BCSF Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 60/100

Trailing EPS: $1.52 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (60/100)Model Risk Weight (40/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$98.8M	$29.5M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$119.4M	-$27.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$123.4M	$219.3M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BCSF & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BCSF
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BCSF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.03%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $10.82H $10.85L $10.72C $10.85VOL 574.0K

RES: $12.28SUP: $9.86SMA50: $11.09SMA200: $12.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCSF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCSF Butterfly Map → + Track BCSF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-7.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCSF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCSF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCSF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCSF)

Financials Rank #505 of 1096 ⚔️ FDUS vs BCSF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BCSF vs. FDUS, NMFC, SLRC, AIO)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) ranks #505 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #624 by equity capitalization ($703.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLRC leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while SLRC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.3% ROIC and — gross margin. BCSF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BCSF ACTIVE Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc.	C-	60/100	7.1x	—	8.8%	+2.36%	$703.8M	Benchmark Subject
FDUS Fidus Investment Corporation	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.83%	$737.8M	/fdus-vs-bcsf →
NMFC New Mountain Finance Corporation	C-	59/100	40.3x	—	1.4%	+1.88%	$664.9M	/nmfc-vs-bcsf →
SLRC SLR Investment Corp.	D	46/100	7.0x	—	9.3%	+1.99%	$643.2M	/slrc-vs-bcsf →
AIO Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund of	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+0.62%	$830.7M	/aio-vs-bcsf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001655050

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $98.8M, operating cash flow of $29.5M, and free cash flow of $29.5M (+209.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCSF closed FY2025 with $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$98.8M	$29.5M	$29.5M	$2.66B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$119.4M	-$27.1M	-$27.1M	$2.63B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$123.4M	$219.3M	$219.3M	—	—

3. BCSF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (NYSE: BCSF) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $10.85 (+2.36% 1D, market cap $703.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BCSF ranks #505 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCSF compare to FDUS and NMFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), BCSF carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, FDUS (Fidus Investment Corporation) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $737.8M) and NMFC (New Mountain Finance Corporation) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 40.3x, ROIC 1.4%, cap $664.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLRC leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while SLRC leads on capital efficiency (9.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCSF?

Per BCSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001655050), Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $98.8M in net income, and $29.5M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCSF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCSF last traded at $10.85 (+2.36% on volume of 388,995 shares), positioning the stock -2.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.09) and -12.92% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.46). Across its 52-week range of $10.00 to $14.70, BCSF sits at the 18.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.2% ($10.29 to $11.41).

BCSF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BCSF's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is BCSF stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.2% event move for BCSF, spanning a range between $10.29 and $11.41.

Direct Sub-Reports: BCSF RQD Cockpit BCSF 12M Forecast BCSF Earnings & Move BCSF Dividends & DRIP BCSF Insiders & 13F BCSF Whale Options BCSF Profit Sankey BCSF News & Why