Stock Ratings / Financials / BBDC / options

TROO (45) OBDC (65) IX (58) FMN (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$8.71 +1.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.76

Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $912.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.76 (+0.53%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BBDC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BBDC SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 47% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$8.52-0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$8.44-1.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$8.31+4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$8.71+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BBDC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, BBDC faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.75) or 200D SMA ($8.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.22) toward Bear Floor ($7.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BBDC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BBDC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±3.9%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BBDC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BBDC.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BBDC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BBDC
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BBDC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.70%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $8.74H $8.74L $8.61C $8.71VOL 494.4K

RES: $9.66SUP: $8.20SMA50: $8.75SMA200: $8.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BBDC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BBDC Butterfly Map → + Track BBDC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BBDC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BBDC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BBDC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BBDC)

Financials Rank #123 of 1096 ⚔️ TROO vs BBDC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BBDC vs. TROO, OBDC, IX, FMN)

Industry: Diversified Financial Services (4 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC) ranks #123 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #572 by equity capitalization ($912.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OBDC leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while IX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. BBDC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BBDC ACTIVE Barings BDC Inc.	B-	71/100	8.9x	—	8.8%	+1.63%	$912.0M	Benchmark Subject
TROO TROOPS Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+6.94%	$282.2M	/troo-vs-bbdc →
OBDC Blue Owl Capital Corporation	C	65/100	8.3x	—	6.4%	+3.55%	$5.18B	/obdc-vs-bbdc →
IX ORIX Corporation	D+	58/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+1.30%	$40.70B	/ix-vs-bbdc →
FMN Federated Hermes Premier Municipal Income Fund	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+0.58%	$903.1M	/fmn-vs-bbdc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001379785

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $101.9M, operating cash flow of $160.5M, and free cash flow of $160.5M (+31.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, BBDC closed FY2025 with $2.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$101.9M	$160.5M	$160.5M	$2.64B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$110.3M	$122.2M	$122.2M	$2.70B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$128.0M	$76.9M	$76.9M	—	—

3. BBDC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Barings BDC Inc. (NYSE: BBDC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $8.71 (+1.63% 1D, market cap $912.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BBDC ranks #123 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BBDC compare to TROO and OBDC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Diversified Financial Services), BBDC carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, TROO (TROOPS Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $282.2M) and OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $5.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBDC leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while IX leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BBDC?

Per BBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001379785), Barings BDC Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $101.9M in net income, and $160.5M in free cash flow against $2.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BBDC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BBDC last traded at $8.71 (+1.63% on volume of 387,293 shares), positioning the stock -0.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.75) and +0.35% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.68). Across its 52-week range of $7.96 to $9.54, BBDC sits at the 47.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($8.37 to $9.05).