Stock Ratings / Financials / BAFN / options

HNVR (67) EBMT (71) MNSB (64) FINW (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$5.80 -6.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.73

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $166.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BAFN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $5.80 (-6.00% 1D, market cap $166.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #765 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BAFN compare to HNVR and EBMT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, HNVR (Hanover Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $166.5M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $170.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?

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Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.73 (-1.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 7.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAFN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BAFN SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (32% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 29% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.2% FCF Margin ($288.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.38+15.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.20+11% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.88-15.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.80-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BAFN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BAFN currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.15) and Max Pain ($6.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAFN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BAFN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BAFN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BAFN.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAFN)

✓Walkthrough of BAFN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BAFN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.37%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.21H $6.21L $5.80C $5.80VOL 32.9K

RES: $11.35SUP: $5.00SMA50: $7.15SMA200: $6.54

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BAFN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BAFN Butterfly Map → + Track BAFN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAFN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAFN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAFN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAFN)

Financials Rank #765 of 1096 ⚔️ HNVR vs BAFN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BAFN vs. HNVR, EBMT, MNSB, FINW)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) ranks #765 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #917 by equity capitalization ($166.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MNSB leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while FINW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EBMT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BAFN at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BAFN ACTIVE BayFirst Financial Corp.	D	47/100	—	—	-30.1%	-6.00%	$166.4M	Benchmark Subject
HNVR Hanover Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	22.2x	—	3.7%	-1.10%	$166.5M	/hnvr-vs-bafn →
EBMT Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.	B-	71/100	11.5x	—	7.7%	-0.70%	$170.1M	/ebmt-vs-bafn →
MNSB MainStreet Bancshares Inc.	C	64/100	9.8x	—	7.1%	-0.88%	$153.0M	/mnsb-vs-bafn →
FINW FinWise Bancorp	D	47/100	11.5x	—	8.3%	-1.05%	$185.1M	/finw-vs-bafn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001649739

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$24.6M, operating cash flow of $288.8M, and free cash flow of $288.5M (-26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAFN closed FY2025 with $1.29B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$24.6M	$288.8M	$288.5M	$1.29B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$10.2M	$393.4M	$391.7M	$1.28B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$5.7M	$454.8M	$454.8M	—	—

3. BAFN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BAFN compare to HNVR and EBMT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?

Where is BAFN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BAFN last traded at $5.80 (-6.00% on volume of 32,949 shares), positioning the stock -18.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.15) and -11.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.54). Across its 52-week range of $4.26 to $9.56, BAFN sits at the 29.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.08 to $6.52).