MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 2d ago
BayFirst Financial Corp. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-31. The following slide deck was published by BayFirst Financial Corp.
Why BAFN Stock dropped -6.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.80 -6.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.73
BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $166.4M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $5.80 (-6.00% 1D, market cap $166.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #765 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does BAFN compare to HNVR and EBMT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, HNVR (Hanover Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $166.5M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $170.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?
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Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.73 (-1.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 7.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAFN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BAFN SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (32% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 29% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.2% FCF Margin ($288.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$5.38+15.2% Next Q
39
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$6.20+11% Next Q
42
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$6.88-15.7% Next Q
44
CurrentGrade D$5.80-5.9% Hist 90D α
47
Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BAFN Turnaround Squeeze
While BAFN currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.15) and Max Pain ($6.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.04.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAFN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BAFN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BAFN Stock dropped -6.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) dropped -6.00% to $5.80, trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($4.26 – $9.56). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-30% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($4.26 – $9.56) with RSI-14 at 41 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $5.80 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $288.5M annual free cash flow.
Live BAFN Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
BayFirst (BAFN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptCommunity bank narrows losses as SBA portfolio runoff stabilizes credit quality.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
What BayFirst Financial (BAFN) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallBayFirst Financial (NASDAQ:BAFN) reported a third-quarter net loss of $677,000, a substantial improvement from its $32.7 million loss in the second quarter, as the company continued its transition toward a community bank
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 3d ago
BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptBayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 30, 2026 9:00 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsAlfred Rogers - President, CEO & DirectorScott...
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
BayFirst Financial Corp. Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of BayFirst Financial Corp.'s Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 3d ago
BayFirst Financial Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptBayFirst Financial (NASDAQ:BAFN) reported third-quarter financial results on Friday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
BayFirst Financial Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2026 ResultsNet Interest Margin Expansion, 25% Growth in Community Bank Lending, and Significant Credit ImprovementST. PETERSBURG, Fla., Oct. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) (“BayFirst” or “Compa
RISK WATCHBenzinga • 3d ago
CORRECTION: BayFirst Financial Q3 EPS $(0.04) Up From $(4.66) YoY, Sales $11.728M Down From $21.654M YoYBayFirst Financial (NASDAQ:BAFN) reported quarterly losses of $(0.04) per share. This is a 99.14 percent increase over losses of $(4.66) per share from the same period last year. The company reported $11.728 million in
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAFN)
- ✓Walkthrough of BAFN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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BAFN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.37%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $6.21H $6.21L $5.80C $5.80VOL 32.9K
RES: $11.35SUP: $5.00SMA50: $7.15SMA200: $6.54
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BAFN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAFN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAFN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAFN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAFN)
Financials Rank #765 of 1096
⚔️ HNVR vs BAFN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BAFN vs. HNVR, EBMT, MNSB, FINW)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) ranks #765 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #917 by equity capitalization ($166.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MNSB leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while FINW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EBMT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BAFN at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAFN
ACTIVE
BayFirst Financial Corp. | D | 47/100 | — | — | -30.1% | -6.00% | $166.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| HNVR Hanover Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 22.2x | — | 3.7% | -1.10% | $166.5M | /hnvr-vs-bafn → |
| EBMT Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 11.5x | — | 7.7% | -0.70% | $170.1M | /ebmt-vs-bafn → |
| MNSB MainStreet Bancshares Inc. | C | 64/100 | 9.8x | — | 7.1% | -0.88% | $153.0M | /mnsb-vs-bafn → |
| FINW FinWise Bancorp | D | 47/100 | 11.5x | — | 8.3% | -1.05% | $185.1M | /finw-vs-bafn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001649739In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$24.6M, operating cash flow of $288.8M, and free cash flow of $288.5M (-26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAFN closed FY2025 with $1.29B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$24.6M | $288.8M | $288.5M | $1.29B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $10.2M | $393.4M | $391.7M | $1.28B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $5.7M | $454.8M | $454.8M | — | — |
3. BAFN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $5.80 (-6.00% 1D, market cap $166.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #765 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BAFN compare to HNVR and EBMT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, HNVR (Hanover Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $166.5M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $170.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?
Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BAFN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BAFN last traded at $5.80 (-6.00% on volume of 32,949 shares), positioning the stock -18.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.15) and -11.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.54). Across its 52-week range of $4.26 to $9.56, BAFN sits at the 29.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.08 to $6.52).
BAFN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BAFN stock moving today?
Why BAFN Stock dropped -6.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-30% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.