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Stock Ratings / Financials / BAFN / dividends
HNVR (67) EBMT (71) MNSB (64) FINW (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$5.80 -6.00% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.73

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows β†’
ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $166.4M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BAFN Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $5.80 (-6.00% 1D, market cap $166.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #765 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BAFN compare to HNVR and EBMT in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, HNVR (Hanover Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $166.5M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $170.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?
β–Ό

Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.73 (-1.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 7.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510047
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (7)SEC (10)Macro (15)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target
$10 Bull$6 Base$4 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BAFN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAFN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BAFN SCORES 47/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (32% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 29% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 41 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.2% FCF Margin ($288.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$5.38+15.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$6.20+11% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
44
Grade D$6.88-15.7% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$5.80-5.9% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (39) β†’ D (47)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BAFN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While BAFN currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.15) and Max Pain ($6.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.04.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAFNβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBAFN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.2% Total Yield
0.4% Cash ($0.02/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.2% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $20,042

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $441/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.5K
Yr 2
$12.3K
Yr 3
$13.2K
Yr 4
$14.2K
Yr 5
$15.2K
Yr 6
$16.3K
Yr 7
$17.4K
Yr 8
$18.7K
Yr 9
$20.0K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAFN)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of BAFN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
BAFN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.37%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $6.21H $6.21L $5.80C $5.80VOL 32.9K
RES: $11.35SUP: $5.00SMA50: $7.15SMA200: $6.54
$9.87$8.35$6.83$5.31$3.79RES $11.35SUP $5.00$5.802026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BAFN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ BAFN Butterfly Map β†’ + Track BAFN β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAFN today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAFN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAFN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAFN)

Financials Rank #765 of 1096 βš”οΈ HNVR vs BAFN Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BAFN vs. HNVR, EBMT, MNSB, FINW)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) ranks #765 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #917 by equity capitalization ($166.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MNSB leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while FINW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.3% ROIC and β€” gross margin. EBMT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BAFN at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BAFN ACTIVE
BayFirst Financial Corp.
D 47/100 β€” β€” -30.1% -6.00% $166.4M Benchmark Subject
HNVR
Hanover Bancorp Inc.
C+ 67/100 22.2x β€” 3.7% -1.10% $166.5M /hnvr-vs-bafn β†’
EBMT
Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.
B- 71/100 11.5x β€” 7.7% -0.70% $170.1M /ebmt-vs-bafn β†’
MNSB
MainStreet Bancshares Inc.
C 64/100 9.8x β€” 7.1% -0.88% $153.0M /mnsb-vs-bafn β†’
FINW
FinWise Bancorp
D 47/100 11.5x β€” 8.3% -1.05% $185.1M /finw-vs-bafn β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001649739

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$24.6M, operating cash flow of $288.8M, and free cash flow of $288.5M (-26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAFN closed FY2025 with $1.29B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 -$24.6M $288.8M $288.5M $1.29B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $10.2M $393.4M $391.7M $1.28B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $5.7M $454.8M $454.8M β€” β€”

3. BAFN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BAFN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, BayFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BAFN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $5.80 (-6.00% 1D, market cap $166.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BAFN ranks #765 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BAFN compare to HNVR and EBMT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BAFN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -30.1%. By comparison, HNVR (Hanover Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $166.5M) and EBMT (Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 7.7%, cap $170.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNSB leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while FINW leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAFN?

Per BAFN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001649739), BayFirst Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$24.6M in net income, and $288.5M in free cash flow against $1.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BAFN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BAFN last traded at $5.80 (-6.00% on volume of 32,949 shares), positioning the stock -18.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.15) and -11.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.54). Across its 52-week range of $4.26 to $9.56, BAFN sits at the 29.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($5.08 to $6.52).

BAFN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does BAFN pay a dividend and is it safe?

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) offers a 0.4% cash dividend yield ($0.02 annualized) and 2.2% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: BAFN RQD Cockpit BAFN 12M Forecast BAFN Earnings & Move BAFN Dividends & DRIP BAFN Insiders & 13F BAFN Whale Options BAFN Profit Sankey BAFN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 47/100 (D) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BAFN β€” BayFirst Financial Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: roarable-bundle-v1
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD 5-pillar rating engine, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) carries a composite score of 47 / 100 (D β€” Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning).\n- Fundamental Cash Engine (10 / 20): Return on invested capital (ROIC) registers at -30.1% with a free cash flow yield of 0.00% and gross margin of 0.0%.\n- Institutional 13F Whale Flow (7 / 20): Tracks institutional accumulation and dark-pool/options positioning relative to the Major Banks cohort.\n- Insider & Congressional Conviction (5 / 20): Evaluates open-market Form 4 executive purchases and Congressional PTR disclosures.\n- Macro Regime Fit (15 / 20): Equity beta of 1.00 across the Financials sector.\n- Forensic Balance-Sheet Shield (10 / 20): Altman Z-Score of 2.50, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt-to-Equity of 0.50.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %\n------------------------------\n$5.80$166.4MN/AN/AN/AN/A0.40%1.00$4.26 - $9.56-30.1%

Business & Sector Positioning

BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) is a NASDAQ-listed Financials issuer operating in Major Banks with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Operating within Major Banks (Financials), BAFN exhibits an operating margin of 0.0% and net margin of 0.0%. Prospective investors should monitor 2nd-order capex cycles, input cost pass-through in gross margin (0.0%), and valuation discipline (current multiple) relative to free cash flow conversion.

Open Questions for Prospective Investors

  • How sustainable is BAFN's current operating margin (0.0%) and ROIC (-30.1%) over the next four quarters?\n2. Does the current valuation multiple (current EV/EBITDA) adequately discount macro sensitivity (Beta 1.00) in Major Banks?\n3. Will upcoming quarterly cash flow conversion support continued balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.50)?

BAFN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BAFN Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BAFN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $5.80?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BAFN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BAFN:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $6.26 (+7.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is BAFN (D β€’ RQD 47/100) a Buy at $5.80?

Welcome to the BAFN (BayFirst Financial Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 47/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.87 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $5.80

Pump the brakes on BAFN β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BAFN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless BayFirst Financial Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.90 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $5.80

BAFN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BAFN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.80 (52-wk range $4.26 - $9.56), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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