MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AWX Stock dropped -2.68% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.53 -2.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.51
Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $9.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.51 (-0.67%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AWX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AWX SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 18% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.5% FCF Margin ($2.1M FCF) & 19.5% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$2.47+1.2% Next Q
51
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$2.50+1.2% Next Q
54
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$2.53+0% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade C-$2.53+0.2% Hist 90D α
59
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AWX Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, AWX faces multiple-compression risk if 30.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 17.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.59) or 200D SMA ($2.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2.54) toward Bear Floor ($1.98).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AWX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AWX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AWX Stock dropped -2.68% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) dropped -2.68% to $2.53, trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($2.43 – $3). Solid 20% profit margin (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 31x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($2.43 – $3) with RSI-14 at 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.4% around $2.53 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 19.5% gross margin and $2.1M annual free cash flow.
Live AWX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AWX Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AWX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.39%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $2.52H $2.60L $2.52C $2.53VOL 600
RES: $3.04SUP: $2.44SMA50: $2.59SMA200: $2.59
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AWX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
23.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AWX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AWX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AWX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AWX)
Utilities Rank #40 of 117
⚔️ QRHC vs AWX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AWX vs. QRHC, RENX, VIVK, OIO)
Industry: Environmental Services (13 Tracked Issuers)Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) ranks #40 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #113 by equity capitalization ($9.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AWX leads on earnings valuation at 30.7x trailing P/E, while AWX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.6% ROIC and 19.5% gross margin. AWX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWX
ACTIVE
Avalon Holdings Corporation | C- | 59/100 | 30.7x | 19.5% | 2.6% | -2.68% | $9.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| QRHC Quest Resource Holding Corporation | D- | 35/100 | — | 17.0% | -12.3% | -6.72% | $23.4M | /qrhc-vs-awx → |
| RENX RenX Enterprises Corp. | E | 25/100 | — | 29.1% | -35.0% | -1.82% | $3.8M | /renx-vs-awx → |
| VIVK Vivakor Inc. | E | 31/100 | — | 36.1% | -35.0% | -2.60% | $2.4M | /vivk-vs-awx → |
| OIO OIO Group | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -3.08% | $657.8M | /oio-vs-awx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001061069In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) reported GAAP revenue of $83.5M (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $83.8M , and +3.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $321.0K, operating cash flow of $3.8M, and free cash flow of $2.1M (+83.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AWX closed FY2025 with $87.4M in total assets against $28.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $83.5M | $321.0K | $3.8M | $2.1M | $87.4M | $28.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $83.8M | $1.3M | $3.4M | $1.1M | $86.2M | $28.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $80.9M | -$1.8M | $2.4M | $2.4M | — | — |
3. AWX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AWX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Avalon Holdings Corporation (NYSE: AWX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $2.53 (-2.68% 1D, market cap $9.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AWX ranks #40 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AWX compare to QRHC and RENX in the Utilities sector?
Within the Utilities sector (Environmental Services), AWX carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.7x, gross margin of 19.5%, and ROIC of 2.6%. By comparison, QRHC (Quest Resource Holding Corporation) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.3%, cap $23.4M) and RENX (RenX Enterprises Corp.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AWX leads on earnings multiple (30.7x) while AWX leads on capital efficiency (2.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWX?
Per AWX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061069), Avalon Holdings Corporation generated $83.5M in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $321.0K in net income, and $2.1M in free cash flow against $87.4M in total assets and $28.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AWX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AWX last traded at $2.53 (-2.68% on volume of 1,523 shares), positioning the stock -2.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.59) and -2.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.59). Across its 52-week range of $2.43 to $3.00, AWX sits at the 17.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($2.32 to $2.74).
AWX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AWX stock moving today?
Why AWX Stock dropped -2.68% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 20% profit margin (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 31x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.