CATALYSTReuters • 2h ago
Indian shares rise on Iran war talks, Reliance earnings beat - ReutersIndian shares rise on Iran war talks, Reliance earnings beat Reuters
Why AVLN Stock slipped -0.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$25.71 -0.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.66
Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.14B
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Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $25.71 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #358 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does AVLN compare to AMPH and SPTX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.15B) and SPTX (Seaport Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?
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Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.66 (-0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AVLN SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.8% FCF Margin ($31.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$25.76-8.2% Next Q
57
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$23.66+10.1% Next Q
54
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$26.04-1.3% Next Q
52
CurrentGrade D$25.71-5.4% Hist 90D α
49
Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVLN Turnaround Squeeze
While AVLN currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.16) and Max Pain ($27.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.18.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AVLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AVLN Stock slipped -0.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) slipped -0.12% to $25.71, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($22.24 – $40.17). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($22.24 – $40.17) with RSI-14 at 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $25.71 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $31.9M annual free cash flow.
Live AVLN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 10h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 11h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 12h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVLN)
- ✓Walkthrough of AVLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AVLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.82%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $25.71H $26.17L $24.85C $25.71VOL 343.5K
RES: $46.43SUP: $22.08SMA50: $30.16SMA200: $29.99
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AVLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVLN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVLN)
Health Care Rank #358 of 1016
⚔️ AMPH vs AVLN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVLN vs. AMPH, SPTX, MNKD, HROW)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) ranks #358 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #345 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.7x trailing P/E, while MNKD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.5% ROIC and 92.3% gross margin. AMPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with AVLN at 49/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVLN
ACTIVE
Avalyn Pharma Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -0.12% | $1.14B | Benchmark Subject |
| AMPH Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 11.7x | 49.5% | 9.0% | +2.28% | $1.15B | /amph-vs-avln → |
| SPTX Seaport Therapeutics Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | +3.53% | $1.13B | /sptx-vs-avln → |
| MNKD MannKind Corporation | C | 63/100 | — | 92.3% | 54.5% | +2.04% | $1.13B | /mnkd-vs-avln → |
| HROW Harrow Inc. | B- | 71/100 | — | 75.1% | 42.9% | +2.04% | $1.12B | /hrow-vs-avln → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001540171In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AVLN closed FY2025 with $148.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $0 | — | — | $148.9M | $0 |
3. AVLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $25.71 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #358 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AVLN compare to AMPH and SPTX in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.15B) and SPTX (Seaport Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?
Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AVLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AVLN last traded at $25.71 (-0.12% on volume of 593,267 shares), positioning the stock -14.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.16) and -14.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.99). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $40.17, AVLN sits at the 19.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($22.50 to $28.92).
AVLN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AVLN stock moving today?
Why AVLN Stock slipped -0.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.