Stock Ratings / Health Care / AVLN / earnings

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Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$25.71 -0.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.66

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.66 (-0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVLN SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.8% FCF Margin ($31.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$25.76-8.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$23.66+10.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$26.04-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$25.71-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVLN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVLN currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.16) and Max Pain ($27.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.18.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$3.21 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AVLN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 49/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (49/100)Model Risk Weight (51/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$0	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVLN)

✓Walkthrough of AVLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AVLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.82%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $25.71H $26.17L $24.85C $25.71VOL 343.5K

RES: $46.43SUP: $22.08SMA50: $30.16SMA200: $29.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVLN Butterfly Map → + Track AVLN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVLN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVLN)

Health Care Rank #358 of 1016 ⚔️ AMPH vs AVLN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVLN vs. AMPH, SPTX, MNKD, HROW)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) ranks #358 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #345 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.7x trailing P/E, while MNKD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.5% ROIC and 92.3% gross margin. AMPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with AVLN at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVLN ACTIVE Avalyn Pharma Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-0.12%	$1.14B	Benchmark Subject
AMPH Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B-	71/100	11.7x	49.5%	9.0%	+2.28%	$1.15B	/amph-vs-avln →
SPTX Seaport Therapeutics Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+3.53%	$1.13B	/sptx-vs-avln →
MNKD MannKind Corporation	C	63/100	—	92.3%	54.5%	+2.04%	$1.13B	/mnkd-vs-avln →
HROW Harrow Inc.	B-	71/100	—	75.1%	42.9%	+2.04%	$1.12B	/hrow-vs-avln →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001540171

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AVLN closed FY2025 with $148.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$148.9M	$0

3. AVLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $25.71 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #358 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVLN compare to AMPH and SPTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.15B) and SPTX (Seaport Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?

Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVLN last traded at $25.71 (-0.12% on volume of 593,267 shares), positioning the stock -14.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.16) and -14.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.99). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $40.17, AVLN sits at the 19.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($22.50 to $28.92).

AVLN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AVLN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AVLN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for AVLN, spanning a range between $22.5 and $28.92.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVLN RQD Cockpit AVLN 12M Forecast AVLN Earnings & Move AVLN Dividends & DRIP AVLN Insiders & 13F AVLN Whale Options AVLN Profit Sankey AVLN News & Why