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Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$25.71 -0.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.66

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.66 (-0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVLN SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.8% FCF Margin ($31.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$25.76-8.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$23.66+10.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$26.04-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$25.71-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVLN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVLN currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.16) and Max Pain ($27.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.18.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $22$25.71H: $40

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AVLN

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (43)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVLN

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVLN)

✓Walkthrough of AVLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.82%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $25.71H $26.17L $24.85C $25.71VOL 343.5K

RES: $46.43SUP: $22.08SMA50: $30.16SMA200: $29.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVLN Butterfly Map → + Track AVLN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVLN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVLN)

Health Care Rank #358 of 1016 ⚔️ AMPH vs AVLN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVLN vs. AMPH, SPTX, MNKD, HROW)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) ranks #358 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #345 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.7x trailing P/E, while MNKD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.5% ROIC and 92.3% gross margin. AMPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with AVLN at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVLN ACTIVE Avalyn Pharma Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-0.12%	$1.14B	Benchmark Subject
AMPH Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B-	71/100	11.7x	49.5%	9.0%	+2.28%	$1.15B	/amph-vs-avln →
SPTX Seaport Therapeutics Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+3.53%	$1.13B	/sptx-vs-avln →
MNKD MannKind Corporation	C	63/100	—	92.3%	54.5%	+2.04%	$1.13B	/mnkd-vs-avln →
HROW Harrow Inc.	B-	71/100	—	75.1%	42.9%	+2.04%	$1.12B	/hrow-vs-avln →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001540171

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AVLN closed FY2025 with $148.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$148.9M	$0

3. AVLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $25.71 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #358 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVLN compare to AMPH and SPTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.15B) and SPTX (Seaport Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?

Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVLN last traded at $25.71 (-0.12% on volume of 593,267 shares), positioning the stock -14.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.16) and -14.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.99). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $40.17, AVLN sits at the 19.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($22.50 to $28.92).

AVLN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVLN stock right now?

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 49/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AVLN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVLN's 12-month base price target is $24.67 (range $19.24 to $42.18), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVLN RQD Cockpit AVLN 12M Forecast AVLN Earnings & Move AVLN Dividends & DRIP AVLN Insiders & 13F AVLN Whale Options AVLN Profit Sankey AVLN News & Why