Stock Ratings / Financials / AVBH / earnings

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Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.9% Move

$34.16 +1.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.18

Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $375.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.18 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVBH SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 77.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1% FCF Margin ($38.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$31.05-0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$30.93+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$31.70+7.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$34.16-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVBH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVBH currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($31.58) and Max Pain ($35.87) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVBH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.9% Swing Band

±$1.33 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AVBH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	-$19.6M	$38.9M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$21.0M	$22.6M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBH)

✓Walkthrough of AVBH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AVBH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $34.31H $34.77L $33.86C $34.16VOL 89.7K

SUP: $30.70SMA50: $31.58SMA200: $30.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVBH Butterfly Map → + Track AVBH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBH)

Financials Rank #860 of 1096 ⚔️ SUPV vs AVBH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AVBH vs. SUPV, VBNK, PGC, AGBK)

Industry: Commercial Banks (34 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) ranks #860 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #766 by equity capitalization ($375.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PGC leads on earnings valuation at 21.8x trailing P/E, while PGC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. AGBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with AVBH at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVBH ACTIVE Avidbank Holdings Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-7.0%	+1.37%	$375.6M	Benchmark Subject
SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. each Representing five (Class B)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+0.30%	$612.0M	/supv-vs-avbh →
VBNK VersaBank	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.71%	$732.0M	/vbnk-vs-avbh →
PGC Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation	D+	53/100	21.8x	—	5.7%	-0.56%	$813.9M	/pgc-vs-avbh →
AGBK AGI Inc (Class A)	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+0.39%	$819.9M	/agbk-vs-avbh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001443575

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$19.6M, operating cash flow of $39.0M, and free cash flow of $38.9M (+72.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBH closed FY2025 with $2.57B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$19.6M	$39.0M	$38.9M	$2.57B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$21.0M	$22.7M	$22.6M	$2.30B	—

3. AVBH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avidbank Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $34.16 (+1.37% 1D, market cap $375.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AVBH ranks #860 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVBH compare to SUPV and VBNK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Commercial Banks), AVBH carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.0%. By comparison, SUPV (Grupo Supervielle S.A. each Representing five (Class B)) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $612.0M) and VBNK (VersaBank) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $732.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PGC leads on earnings multiple (21.8x) while PGC leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBH?

Per AVBH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001443575), Avidbank Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$19.6M in net income, and $38.9M in free cash flow against $2.57B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVBH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBH last traded at $34.16 (+1.37% on volume of 133,235 shares), positioning the stock +8.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.58) and +11.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.61). Across its 52-week range of $24.03 to $34.77, AVBH sits at the 94.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 77.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($32.83 to $35.49).

AVBH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AVBH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AVBH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±3.9% event move for AVBH, spanning a range between $32.83 and $35.49.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVBH RQD Cockpit AVBH 12M Forecast AVBH Earnings & Move AVBH Dividends & DRIP AVBH Insiders & 13F AVBH Whale Options AVBH Profit Sankey AVBH News & Why