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Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$34.16 +1.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.18

Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $375.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.18 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVBH SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 77.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1% FCF Margin ($38.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$31.05-0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$30.93+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$31.70+7.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$34.16-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVBH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVBH currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($31.58) and Max Pain ($35.87) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVBH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERBOUGHT (>70)

77.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE94% OF RANGE

L: $24$34.16H: $35

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AVBH

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

-7.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 10.37% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVBH

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBH)

✓Walkthrough of AVBH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVBH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $34.31H $34.77L $33.86C $34.16VOL 89.7K

SUP: $30.70SMA50: $31.58SMA200: $30.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVBH Butterfly Map → + Track AVBH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBH)

Financials Rank #860 of 1096 ⚔️ SUPV vs AVBH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AVBH vs. SUPV, VBNK, PGC, AGBK)

Industry: Commercial Banks (34 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) ranks #860 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #766 by equity capitalization ($375.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PGC leads on earnings valuation at 21.8x trailing P/E, while PGC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. AGBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with AVBH at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVBH ACTIVE Avidbank Holdings Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-7.0%	+1.37%	$375.6M	Benchmark Subject
SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. each Representing five (Class B)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+0.30%	$612.0M	/supv-vs-avbh →
VBNK VersaBank	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.71%	$732.0M	/vbnk-vs-avbh →
PGC Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation	D+	53/100	21.8x	—	5.7%	-0.56%	$813.9M	/pgc-vs-avbh →
AGBK AGI Inc (Class A)	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+0.39%	$819.9M	/agbk-vs-avbh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001443575

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$19.6M, operating cash flow of $39.0M, and free cash flow of $38.9M (+72.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBH closed FY2025 with $2.57B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$19.6M	$39.0M	$38.9M	$2.57B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$21.0M	$22.7M	$22.6M	$2.30B	—

3. AVBH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avidbank Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $34.16 (+1.37% 1D, market cap $375.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AVBH ranks #860 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVBH compare to SUPV and VBNK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Commercial Banks), AVBH carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.0%. By comparison, SUPV (Grupo Supervielle S.A. each Representing five (Class B)) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $612.0M) and VBNK (VersaBank) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $732.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PGC leads on earnings multiple (21.8x) while PGC leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBH?

Per AVBH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001443575), Avidbank Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$19.6M in net income, and $38.9M in free cash flow against $2.57B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVBH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBH last traded at $34.16 (+1.37% on volume of 133,235 shares), positioning the stock +8.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.58) and +11.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.61). Across its 52-week range of $24.03 to $34.77, AVBH sits at the 94.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 77.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($32.83 to $35.49).

AVBH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVBH stock right now?

Avidbank Holdings Inc. (AVBH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AVBH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVBH's 12-month base price target is $32.93 (range $25.69 to $38.86), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVBH RQD Cockpit AVBH 12M Forecast AVBH Earnings & Move AVBH Dividends & DRIP AVBH Insiders & 13F AVBH Whale Options AVBH Profit Sankey AVBH News & Why