Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-01, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $5.39 (-2.00% 1D, market cap $447.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #986 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $241.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).
Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.5% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 52% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While ASPN currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.25) and Max Pain ($5.66) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.65.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) dropped -2.00% to $5.39, trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($2.3 – $8.24). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
NORTHBOROUGH, Mass., Oct. 22, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) (“Aspen” or the "Company") today announced that Don Young, President & Chief Executive Officer, and Grant Thoele, Chief Financial O
If you had backed Aspen Aerogels for the full year, the outcome would have been painful. Holding Aspen Aerogels over the past year would have meant a 37.5% loss, including dividends. That headline number sits beside fres
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -40.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPN today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) ranks #986 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #598 by equity capitalization ($447.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCC leads on earnings valuation at 20.4x trailing P/E, while BCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.1% ROIC and — gross margin. BCC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with ASPN at 25/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASPN
ACTIVE
Aspen Aerogels Inc. | E | 25/100 | — | 17.0% | -35.0% | -2.00% | $447.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| ZKH ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A) | D | 47/100 | — | — | — | -6.17% | $241.6M | /zkh-vs-aspn → |
| GRWG GrowGeneration Corp. | E | 25/100 | — | 26.8% | -30.1% | 0.00% | $88.4M | /grwg-vs-aspn → |
| BCC Boise Cascade L.L.C. | D+ | 57/100 | 20.4x | — | 7.1% | +4.41% | $2.72B | /bcc-vs-aspn → |
| SMJF SMJ International Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D- | 35/100 | — | 34.6% | — | +3.36% | $42.7M | /smjf-vs-aspn → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) reported GAAP revenue of $271.1M (-40.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $452.7M , and +13.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$389.6M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of -$4.6M (+88.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPN closed FY2025 with $406.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $271.1M | -$389.6M | $32.9M | -$4.6M | $406.7M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $452.7M | $13.4M | $45.5M | -$40.7M | $895.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $238.7M | -$45.8M | -$42.6M | -$42.6M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $5.39 (-2.00% 1D, market cap $447.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #986 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $241.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).
Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
ASPN last traded at $5.39 (-2.00% on volume of 711,552 shares), positioning the stock +2.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.25) and +15.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.67). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $8.24, ASPN sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($4.82 to $5.96).
Why ASPN Stock dropped -2.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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