Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASPN / earnings

ZKH (47) GRWG (25) BCC (57) SMJF (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.5% Move

$5.39 -2.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.36

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $447.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.36 (-0.55%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASPN SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+6/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 52% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.65-8.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$5.19+6.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$5.52-2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade E$5.39-10.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASPN currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.25) and Max Pain ($5.66) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.5% Swing Band

±$0.57 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ASPN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 25/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -40.1%

Model Bullish Setup (25/100)Model Risk Weight (75/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$271.1M	-$389.6M	-$4.6M	17%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$452.7M	$13.4M	-$40.7M	40.4%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$238.7M	-$45.8M	-$42.6M	17%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASPN)

✓Walkthrough of ASPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.28%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $5.15H $5.39L $4.97C $5.39VOL 1.18M

RES: $9.85SUP: $5.01SMA50: $5.25SMA200: $4.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASPN Butterfly Map → + Track ASPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -40.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASPN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #986 of 1011 ⚔️ ZKH vs ASPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASPN vs. ZKH, GRWG, BCC, SMJF)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) ranks #986 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #598 by equity capitalization ($447.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCC leads on earnings valuation at 20.4x trailing P/E, while BCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.1% ROIC and — gross margin. BCC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with ASPN at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASPN ACTIVE Aspen Aerogels Inc.	E	25/100	—	17.0%	-35.0%	-2.00%	$447.3M	Benchmark Subject
ZKH ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)	D	47/100	—	—	—	-6.17%	$241.6M	/zkh-vs-aspn →
GRWG GrowGeneration Corp.	E	25/100	—	26.8%	-30.1%	0.00%	$88.4M	/grwg-vs-aspn →
BCC Boise Cascade L.L.C.	D+	57/100	20.4x	—	7.1%	+4.41%	$2.72B	/bcc-vs-aspn →
SMJF SMJ International Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	35/100	—	34.6%	—	+3.36%	$42.7M	/smjf-vs-aspn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001145986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) reported GAAP revenue of $271.1M (-40.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $452.7M , and +13.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$389.6M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of -$4.6M (+88.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPN closed FY2025 with $406.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$271.1M	-$389.6M	$32.9M	-$4.6M	$406.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$452.7M	$13.4M	$45.5M	-$40.7M	$895.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$238.7M	-$45.8M	-$42.6M	-$42.6M	—	—

3. ASPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $5.39 (-2.00% 1D, market cap $447.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #986 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASPN compare to ZKH and GRWG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $241.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPN?

Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPN last traded at $5.39 (-2.00% on volume of 711,552 shares), positioning the stock +2.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.25) and +15.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.67). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $8.24, ASPN sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($4.82 to $5.96).

ASPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ASPN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ASPN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.5% event move for ASPN, spanning a range between $4.82 and $5.96.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASPN RQD Cockpit ASPN 12M Forecast ASPN Earnings & Move ASPN Dividends & DRIP ASPN Insiders & 13F ASPN Whale Options ASPN Profit Sankey ASPN News & Why