Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASPN / forecast

ZKH (47) GRWG (25) BCC (57) SMJF (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.39 -2.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.36

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $447.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.36 (-0.55%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASPN SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+6/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 52% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.65-8.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$5.19+6.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$5.52-2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade E$5.39-10.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASPN currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.25) and Max Pain ($5.66) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ASPN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.39: 1855.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.58

$6,642

$-3,358 (-33.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.59

$8,516

$-1,484 (-14.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.65

$16,048

+$6,048 (+60.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$5	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$8	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$4	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASPN)

✓Walkthrough of ASPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.28%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $5.15H $5.39L $4.97C $5.39VOL 1.18M

RES: $9.85SUP: $5.01SMA50: $5.25SMA200: $4.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASPN Butterfly Map → + Track ASPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -40.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASPN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #986 of 1011 ⚔️ ZKH vs ASPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASPN vs. ZKH, GRWG, BCC, SMJF)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) ranks #986 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #598 by equity capitalization ($447.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCC leads on earnings valuation at 20.4x trailing P/E, while BCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.1% ROIC and — gross margin. BCC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with ASPN at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASPN ACTIVE Aspen Aerogels Inc.	E	25/100	—	17.0%	-35.0%	-2.00%	$447.3M	Benchmark Subject
ZKH ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)	D	47/100	—	—	—	-6.17%	$241.6M	/zkh-vs-aspn →
GRWG GrowGeneration Corp.	E	25/100	—	26.8%	-30.1%	0.00%	$88.4M	/grwg-vs-aspn →
BCC Boise Cascade L.L.C.	D+	57/100	20.4x	—	7.1%	+4.41%	$2.72B	/bcc-vs-aspn →
SMJF SMJ International Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	35/100	—	34.6%	—	+3.36%	$42.7M	/smjf-vs-aspn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001145986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) reported GAAP revenue of $271.1M (-40.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $452.7M , and +13.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$389.6M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of -$4.6M (+88.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASPN closed FY2025 with $406.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$271.1M	-$389.6M	$32.9M	-$4.6M	$406.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$452.7M	$13.4M	$45.5M	-$40.7M	$895.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$238.7M	-$45.8M	-$42.6M	-$42.6M	—	—

3. ASPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE: ASPN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $5.39 (-2.00% 1D, market cap $447.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASPN ranks #986 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASPN compare to ZKH and GRWG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), ASPN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZKH (ZKH Group Limited each representing thirty-five (35) (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $241.6M) and GRWG (GrowGeneration Corp.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.1%, cap $88.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCC leads on earnings multiple (20.4x) while BCC leads on capital efficiency (7.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASPN?

Per ASPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001145986), Aspen Aerogels Inc. generated $271.1M in revenue (-40.1% YoY), -$389.6M in net income, and -$4.6M in free cash flow against $406.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASPN last traded at $5.39 (-2.00% on volume of 711,552 shares), positioning the stock +2.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.25) and +15.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.67). Across its 52-week range of $2.30 to $8.24, ASPN sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($4.82 to $5.96).

ASPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ASPN's 12-month stock price target?

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.59 (-14.8% from $5.39), with a bull-case target of $8.65 and a bear-case floor of $3.58.

Is ASPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ASPN E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 25/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASPN RQD Cockpit ASPN 12M Forecast ASPN Earnings & Move ASPN Dividends & DRIP ASPN Insiders & 13F ASPN Whale Options ASPN Profit Sankey ASPN News & Why