MARKET WIREBenzinga • 4d ago
B. Riley Securities Maintains Neutral on AerSale, Lowers Price Target to $6B. Riley Securities analyst Jeff Van Sinderen maintains AerSale (NASDAQ:ASLE) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $7.5 to $6.
Why ASLE Stock surged +2.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$4.69 +2.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.70
AerSale Corporation (ASLE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $223.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.70 (+0.24%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASLE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASLE SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (28% of score)
Altman Z-Score 1.92 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (28% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 4.7% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$5.08-6.3% Next Q
51
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$4.76-1.9% Next Q
48
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$4.67+0.4% Next Q
46
CurrentGrade D-$4.69-6.7% Hist 90D α
43
Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASLE Turnaround Squeeze
While ASLE currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.19) and Max Pain ($4.92) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.33.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASLE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASLE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ASLE Stock surged +2.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
AerSale Corporation (ASLE) surged +2.40% to $4.69, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($4.54 – $7.93). Stretched risk/reward at 26x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($4.54 – $7.93) with RSI-14 at 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $4.69 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 31.5% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ASLE Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
AerSale® Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Conference CallMIAMI, Oct. 22, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ: ASLE) (the “Company”) announced today that it will release its earnings results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, on Thursday, November
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASLE)
- ✓Walkthrough of ASLE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ASLE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.21%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $4.70H $4.85L $4.68C $4.69VOL 467.4K
RES: $5.69SUP: $4.44SMA50: $5.19SMA200: $6.26
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ASLE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
19.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASLE today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASLE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASLE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASLE)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #780 of 1011
⚔️ HDSN vs ASLE Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASLE vs. HDSN, VIRC, ADSE, WBX)
Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) ranks #780 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #680 by equity capitalization ($223.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HDSN leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while HDSN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.2% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. ADSE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with ASLE at 43/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASLE
ACTIVE
AerSale Corporation | D- | 43/100 | 26.1x | 31.5% | 2.3% | +2.40% | $223.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| HDSN Hudson Technologies Inc. | D- | 35/100 | 11.2x | 25.2% | 7.2% | -15.49% | $186.0M | /hdsn-vs-asle → |
| VIRC Virco Manufacturing Corporation | D- | 41/100 | 38.2x | 40.7% | 3.0% | -0.80% | $98.2M | /virc-vs-asle → |
| ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +0.10% | $731.8M | /adse-vs-asle → |
| WBX Wallbox N.V. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | 0.00% | $66.9M | /wbx-vs-asle → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754170In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AerSale Corporation (ASLE) reported GAAP revenue of $335.3M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $345.1M , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.6M, operating cash flow of -$23.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.1M (-912.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASLE closed FY2025 with $640.5M in total assets against $111.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.92, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $335.3M | $8.6M | -$23.0M | -$29.1M | $640.5M | $111.3M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $345.1M | $5.9M | $11.2M | -$2.9M | $604.7M | $40.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $334.5M | -$5.6M | -$174.2M | -$174.2M | — | — |
3. ASLE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ASLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ: ASLE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $4.69 (+2.40% 1D, market cap $223.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASLE ranks #780 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ASLE compare to HDSN and VIRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), ASLE carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.1x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of 2.3%. By comparison, HDSN (Hudson Technologies Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $186.0M) and VIRC (Virco Manufacturing Corporation) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E 38.2x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $98.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HDSN leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while HDSN leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASLE?
Per ASLE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754170), AerSale Corporation generated $335.3M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), $8.6M in net income, and -$29.1M in free cash flow against $640.5M in total assets and $111.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ASLE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ASLE last traded at $4.69 (+2.40% on volume of 480,467 shares), positioning the stock -9.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.19) and -25.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.26). Across its 52-week range of $4.54 to $7.93, ASLE sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($4.35 to $5.03).
ASLE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ASLE stock moving today?
Why ASLE Stock surged +2.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 26x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.