Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASLE / earnings

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AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.2% Move

$4.69 +2.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.70

AerSale Corporation (ASLE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $223.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.70 (+0.24%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASLE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASLE SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.92 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 4.7% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$5.08-6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$4.76-1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$4.67+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$4.69-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASLE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASLE currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.19) and Max Pain ($4.92) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASLE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASLE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.2% Swing Band

±$0.34 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ASLE Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 43/100

Trailing EPS: $0.18 • YoY Revenue Growth: -2.8%

Model Bullish Setup (43/100)Model Risk Weight (57/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$335.3M	$8.6M	-$29.1M	31.5%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$345.1M	$5.9M	-$2.9M	30.1%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$334.5M	-$5.6M	-$174.2M	31.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASLE)

✓Walkthrough of ASLE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASLE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.21%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $4.70H $4.85L $4.68C $4.69VOL 467.4K

RES: $5.69SUP: $4.44SMA50: $5.19SMA200: $6.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASLE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASLE Butterfly Map → + Track ASLE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

19.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASLE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASLE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASLE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASLE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #780 of 1011 ⚔️ HDSN vs ASLE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASLE vs. HDSN, VIRC, ADSE, WBX)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) ranks #780 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #680 by equity capitalization ($223.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HDSN leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while HDSN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.2% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. ADSE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with ASLE at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASLE ACTIVE AerSale Corporation	D-	43/100	26.1x	31.5%	2.3%	+2.40%	$223.8M	Benchmark Subject
HDSN Hudson Technologies Inc.	D-	35/100	11.2x	25.2%	7.2%	-15.49%	$186.0M	/hdsn-vs-asle →
VIRC Virco Manufacturing Corporation	D-	41/100	38.2x	40.7%	3.0%	-0.80%	$98.2M	/virc-vs-asle →
ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.10%	$731.8M	/adse-vs-asle →
WBX Wallbox N.V. (Class A)	D+	58/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$66.9M	/wbx-vs-asle →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754170

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AerSale Corporation (ASLE) reported GAAP revenue of $335.3M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $345.1M , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.6M, operating cash flow of -$23.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.1M (-912.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASLE closed FY2025 with $640.5M in total assets against $111.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.92, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$335.3M	$8.6M	-$23.0M	-$29.1M	$640.5M	$111.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$345.1M	$5.9M	$11.2M	-$2.9M	$604.7M	$40.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$334.5M	-$5.6M	-$174.2M	-$174.2M	—	—

3. ASLE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASLE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ: ASLE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $4.69 (+2.40% 1D, market cap $223.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASLE ranks #780 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASLE compare to HDSN and VIRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), ASLE carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.1x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of 2.3%. By comparison, HDSN (Hudson Technologies Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $186.0M) and VIRC (Virco Manufacturing Corporation) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E 38.2x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $98.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HDSN leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while HDSN leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASLE?

Per ASLE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754170), AerSale Corporation generated $335.3M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), $8.6M in net income, and -$29.1M in free cash flow against $640.5M in total assets and $111.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASLE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASLE last traded at $4.69 (+2.40% on volume of 480,467 shares), positioning the stock -9.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.19) and -25.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.26). Across its 52-week range of $4.54 to $7.93, ASLE sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($4.35 to $5.03).