Stock Ratings / Technology / AOSL / forecast

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Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$24.71 +0.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.67

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $748.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.67 (-0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AOSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AOSL SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 21% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$27.87-22% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$21.75+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$21.91+12.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$24.71-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AOSL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AOSL currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.63) and Max Pain ($25.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $57.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AOSL• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AOSL Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AOSL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $24.71: 404.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $18.06

$7,309

$-2,691 (-26.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $23.15

$9,369

$-631 (-6.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $57.06

$23,092

+$13,092 (+130.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$24	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$54	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$21	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AOSL)

✓Walkthrough of AOSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AOSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -43.10%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $23.29H $24.71L $22.10C $24.71VOL 581.5K

RES: $27.50SUP: $21.19SMA50: $25.63SMA200: $30.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AOSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AOSL Butterfly Map → + Track AOSL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AOSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AOSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AOSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AOSL)

Technology Rank #495 of 714 ⚔️ KOPN vs AOSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AOSL vs. KOPN, DQ, TE, CSIQ)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) ranks #495 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #385 by equity capitalization ($748.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AOSL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CSIQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.4% ROIC and 18.3% gross margin. TE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with AOSL at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AOSL ACTIVE Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited	D	44/100	—	23.1%	-3.6%	+0.16%	$748.8M	Benchmark Subject
KOPN Kopin Corporation	D-	41/100	—	—	-20.8%	+3.33%	$749.1M	/kopn-vs-aosl →
DQ DAQO New Energy Corp. each representing five	D-	41/100	—	-20.7%	-6.0%	+3.21%	$761.9M	/dq-vs-aosl →
TE T1 Energy Inc.	D+	55/100	—	7.4%	-35.0%	+8.74%	$856.6M	/te-vs-aosl →
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. (ON)	E	27/100	—	18.3%	2.4%	-2.50%	$634.1M	/csiq-vs-aosl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001387467

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) reported GAAP revenue of $696.2M (+5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $657.3M , and +0.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$97.0M, operating cash flow of $29.7M, and free cash flow of -$7.5M (+34.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AOSL closed FY2025 with $1.00B in total assets against $2.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$696.2M	-$97.0M	$29.7M	-$7.5M	$1.00B	$2.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$657.3M	-$11.1M	$25.7M	-$11.4M	$1.13B	$20.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$691.3M	$12.4M	$20.5M	$20.5M	—	—

3. AOSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (NASDAQ: AOSL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $24.71 (+0.16% 1D, market cap $748.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AOSL ranks #495 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AOSL compare to KOPN and DQ in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AOSL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.1%, and ROIC of -3.6%. By comparison, KOPN (Kopin Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.8%, cap $749.1M) and DQ (DAQO New Energy Corp. each representing five) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.0%, cap $761.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOSL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CSIQ leads on capital efficiency (2.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AOSL?

Per AOSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001387467), Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited generated $696.2M in revenue (+5.9% YoY), -$97.0M in net income, and -$7.5M in free cash flow against $1.00B in total assets and $2.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AOSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AOSL last traded at $24.71 (+0.16% on volume of 407,041 shares), positioning the stock -3.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.63) and -18.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.49). Across its 52-week range of $17.01 to $54.34, AOSL sits at the 20.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($21.87 to $27.55).

AOSL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AOSL's 12-month stock price target?

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $23.15 (-6.3% from $24.71), with a bull-case target of $57.06 and a bear-case floor of $18.06.

Is AOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AOSL D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 44/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AOSL RQD Cockpit AOSL 12M Forecast AOSL Earnings & Move AOSL Dividends & DRIP AOSL Insiders & 13F AOSL Whale Options AOSL Profit Sankey AOSL News & Why