Stock Ratings / Financials / AOMR / forecast

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Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (AOMR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$7.02 -3.57% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.96

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (AOMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $169.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AOMR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AOMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (NYSE: AOMR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $7.02 (-3.57% 1D, market cap $169.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AOMR ranks #801 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AOMR compare to CMTG and CHCI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), AOMR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $166.5M) and CHCI (Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A)) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 24.4%, cap $192.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AOMR?

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Per AOMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001766478), Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $44.0M in net income, and -$407.0M in free cash flow against $2.75B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.96 (-0.83%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AOMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AOMR SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$7.26-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$7.19+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$7.37-4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$7.02-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AOMR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AOMR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.68) and Max Pain ($7.37) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AOMR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AOMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AOMR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $7.02: 1424.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.18

$7,379

$-2,621 (-26.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.64

$9,459

$-541 (-5.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.95

$14,174

+$4,174 (+41.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$7	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$6	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AOMR)

✓Walkthrough of AOMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AOMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.60%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $7.35H $7.35L $6.99C $7.02VOL 113.8K

RES: $9.30SUP: $6.83SMA50: $7.68SMA200: $8.45

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AOMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AOMR Butterfly Map → + Track AOMR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AOMR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AOMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AOMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AOMR)

Financials Rank #801 of 1096 ⚔️ CMTG vs AOMR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AOMR vs. CMTG, CHCI, DOUG, BEEP)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (AOMR) ranks #801 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #914 by equity capitalization ($169.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AOMR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while DOUG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 52.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CHCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with AOMR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AOMR ACTIVE Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.	D	46/100	3.8x	—	16.5%	-3.57%	$169.0M	Benchmark Subject
CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-31.9%	-2.54%	$166.5M	/cmtg-vs-aomr →
CHCI Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A)	C	63/100	11.3x	—	24.4%	-3.85%	$192.1M	/chci-vs-aomr →
DOUG Douglas Elliman Inc.	D	48/100	9.6x	—	52.5%	-3.12%	$145.4M	/doug-vs-aomr →
BEEP Mobile Infrastructure Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	-15.2%	-0.39%	$104.5M	/beep-vs-aomr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001766478

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (AOMR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of -$407.0M, and free cash flow of -$407.0M (-83.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AOMR closed FY2025 with $2.75B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$44.0M	-$407.0M	-$407.0M	$2.75B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$28.8M	-$221.5M	-$221.5M	$2.27B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$33.7M	$306.4M	$306.4M	—	—

3. AOMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AOMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AOMR compare to CMTG and CHCI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AOMR?

Where is AOMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AOMR last traded at $7.02 (-3.57% on volume of 113,894 shares), positioning the stock -8.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.68) and -16.92% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.45). Across its 52-week range of $6.96 to $9.48, AOMR sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($6.63 to $7.41).

AOMR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AOMR's 12-month stock price target?

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (AOMR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.64 (-5.4% from $7.02), with a bull-case target of $9.95 and a bear-case floor of $5.18.

Is AOMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AOMR D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AOMR RQD Cockpit AOMR 12M Forecast AOMR Earnings & Move AOMR Dividends & DRIP AOMR Insiders & 13F AOMR Whale Options AOMR Profit Sankey AOMR News & Why