AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-01, AMERISAFE Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $23.09 (-8.73% 1D, market cap $428.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AMSF ranks #907 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AMSF carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 18.7%. By comparison, GLRE (Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $477.5M) and GBLI (Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $358.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIC leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while ACIC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
Per AMSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018979), AMERISAFE Inc. generated $317.3M in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $47.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
While AMSF currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.90) and Max Pain ($24.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $44.21.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) dropped -8.73% to $23.09, trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($20.87 – $42.1). Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
AMERISAFE’s updated valuation work now points to a fair value estimate of US$31.67, down from US$35.67, which is roughly an 11% cut to the modelled price target. Analysts link this shift to softer Q3 results and a more c
Truist Securities analyst Mark Hughes maintains AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) with a Hold and lowers the price target from $27 to $25.
Net income fell 47.9% as competitive pressures and higher costs squeezed profitability.
AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 29, 2026 10:00 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsKathryn Shirley - Executive VP, Chief Administrative Officer...
AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $7.2 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, compared with $13.8 million, or $0.72 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. Operating net income was $7.
Moby summary of AMERISAFE, Inc.'s Q3 2026 earnings call
Citizens analyst Matthew J. Carletti maintains AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) with a Market Outperform and lowers the price target from $40 to $35.
AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For
Amerisafe (AMSF) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -14.89% and -5.59%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
(AMSF) on Wednesday reported third-quarter profit of $7.The Deridder, Louisiana-based company said it had profit of 39 cents per share.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMSF today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMSF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) ranks #907 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #739 by equity capitalization ($428.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACIC leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while ACIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. AII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with AMSF at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMSF
ACTIVE
AMERISAFE Inc. | D | 47/100 | 9.1x | — | 18.7% | -8.73% | $428.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A) | C | 64/100 | 6.4x | — | 10.6% | +0.55% | $477.5M | /glre-vs-amsf → |
| GBLI Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A) | D+ | 55/100 | 14.2x | — | 3.6% | +1.03% | $358.7M | /gbli-vs-amsf → |
| ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corporation | B | 74/100 | 4.8x | — | 85.0% | +0.55% | $516.7M | /acic-vs-amsf → |
| AII American Integrity Insurance Group Inc. | B | 75/100 | 5.6x | — | 29.6% | +2.54% | $562.6M | /aii-vs-amsf → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) reported GAAP revenue of $317.3M (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $309.0M , and +3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $47.1M, operating cash flow of $11.1M, and free cash flow of $8.9M (-61.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMSF closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $317.3M | $47.1M | $11.1M | $8.9M | $1.13B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $309.0M | $55.4M | $24.2M | $23.4M | $1.16B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $306.9M | $62.1M | $29.8M | $29.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, AMERISAFE Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $23.09 (-8.73% 1D, market cap $428.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AMSF ranks #907 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AMSF carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 18.7%. By comparison, GLRE (Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $477.5M) and GBLI (Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $358.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIC leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while ACIC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
Per AMSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018979), AMERISAFE Inc. generated $317.3M in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $47.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
AMSF last traded at $23.09 (-8.73% on volume of 655,463 shares), positioning the stock -7.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.90) and -25.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.90). Across its 52-week range of $20.87 to $42.10, AMSF sits at the 10.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($21.36 to $24.82).
Why AMSF Stock dropped -8.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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