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AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell AMSF stock right now?

AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 47/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is AMSF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AMSF's 12-month base price target is $21.95 (range $17.12 to $44.21), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$23.09 -8.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.68

AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $428.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.68 (-1.76%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 2.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMSF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMSF SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$24.41+3.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$25.25+4.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$26.31-12.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$23.09-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMSF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMSF currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.90) and Max Pain ($24.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $44.21.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMSF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMSF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

2430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE10% OF RANGE

L: $21$23.09H: $42

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AMSF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

18.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.08% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AMSF

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMSF)

✓Walkthrough of AMSF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AMSF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $23.67H $23.67L $20.87C $23.09VOL 689.1K

RES: $25.88SUP: $21.20SMA50: $24.90SMA200: $30.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMSF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMSF Butterfly Map → + Track AMSF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMSF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMSF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMSF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMSF)

Financials Rank #907 of 1096 ⚔️ GLRE vs AMSF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AMSF vs. GLRE, GBLI, ACIC, AII)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) ranks #907 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #739 by equity capitalization ($428.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACIC leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while ACIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. AII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with AMSF at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMSF ACTIVE AMERISAFE Inc.	D	47/100	9.1x	—	18.7%	-8.73%	$428.0M	Benchmark Subject
GLRE Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)	C	64/100	6.4x	—	10.6%	+0.55%	$477.5M	/glre-vs-amsf →
GBLI Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)	D+	55/100	14.2x	—	3.6%	+1.03%	$358.7M	/gbli-vs-amsf →
ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corporation	B	74/100	4.8x	—	85.0%	+0.55%	$516.7M	/acic-vs-amsf →
AII American Integrity Insurance Group Inc.	B	75/100	5.6x	—	29.6%	+2.54%	$562.6M	/aii-vs-amsf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001018979

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) reported GAAP revenue of $317.3M (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $309.0M , and +3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $47.1M, operating cash flow of $11.1M, and free cash flow of $8.9M (-61.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMSF closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$317.3M	$47.1M	$11.1M	$8.9M	$1.13B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$309.0M	$55.4M	$24.2M	$23.4M	$1.16B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$306.9M	$62.1M	$29.8M	$29.8M	—	—

3. AMSF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, AMERISAFE Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $23.09 (-8.73% 1D, market cap $428.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AMSF ranks #907 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMSF compare to GLRE and GBLI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AMSF carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 18.7%. By comparison, GLRE (Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $477.5M) and GBLI (Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $358.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIC leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while ACIC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMSF?

Per AMSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018979), AMERISAFE Inc. generated $317.3M in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $47.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMSF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMSF last traded at $23.09 (-8.73% on volume of 655,463 shares), positioning the stock -7.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.90) and -25.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.90). Across its 52-week range of $20.87 to $42.10, AMSF sits at the 10.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($21.36 to $24.82).

AMSF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AMSF stock right now?

AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 47/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AMSF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AMSF's 12-month base price target is $21.95 (range $17.12 to $44.21), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMSF RQD Cockpit AMSF 12M Forecast AMSF Earnings & Move AMSF Dividends & DRIP AMSF Insiders & 13F AMSF Whale Options AMSF Profit Sankey AMSF News & Why