Stock Ratings / Industrials / AMBP / options

SLGN (59) LWLG (31) CCK (72) BALL (68) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.50 -0.66% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.49

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.71B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMBP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE: AMBP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $4.50 (-0.66% 1D, market cap $2.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AMBP ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMBP compare to SLGN and LWLG in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Containers/Packaging), AMBP carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SLGN (Silgan Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $4.17B) and LWLG (Lightwave Logic Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $706.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLGN leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while CCK leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBP?

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For Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #211 in Industrials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.49 (-0.31%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMBP SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 1.9% FCF Margin ($75.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.30+7.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$4.62-2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$4.49+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$4.50-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMBP currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.67) and Max Pain ($4.73) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.74.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMBP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±6.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AMBP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AMBP.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBP)

✓Walkthrough of AMBP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AMBP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.21%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $4.50H $4.53L $4.50C $4.50VOL 943.3K

RES: $4.82SUP: $4.20SMA50: $4.67SMA200: $4.48

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMBP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMBP Butterfly Map → + Track AMBP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBP)

Industrials Rank #211 of 485 ⚔️ SLGN vs AMBP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AMBP vs. SLGN, LWLG, CCK, BALL)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) ranks #211 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #189 by equity capitalization ($2.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLGN leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while CCK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.1% ROIC and — gross margin. CCK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with AMBP at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMBP ACTIVE Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-0.66%	$2.71B	Benchmark Subject
SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc.	C-	59/100	14.5x	17.7%	5.7%	+2.58%	$4.17B	/slgn-vs-ambp →
LWLG Lightwave Logic Inc.	E	31/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	+3.71%	$706.1M	/lwlg-vs-ambp →
CCK Crown Holdings Inc.	B	72/100	17.3x	—	16.1%	+0.88%	$12.77B	/cck-vs-ambp →
BALL Ball Corporation	C+	68/100	32.8x	—	5.2%	+3.05%	$17.07B	/ball-vs-ambp →

2. AMBP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) operates in Containers/Packaging (Industrials) with an equity capitalization of $2.71B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. AMBP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AMBP compare to SLGN and LWLG in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBP?

Where is AMBP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMBP last traded at $4.50 (-0.66% on volume of 1,238,375 shares), positioning the stock -3.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.67) and +0.45% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.48). Across its 52-week range of $3.29 to $5.47, AMBP sits at the 55.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($4.21 to $4.79).

AMBP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AMBP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AMBP.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMBP RQD Cockpit AMBP 12M Forecast AMBP Earnings & Move AMBP Dividends & DRIP AMBP Insiders & 13F AMBP Whale Options AMBP Profit Sankey AMBP News & Why