Stock Ratings / Industrials / AIR / options

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AAR Corp. (AIR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$104.52 +3.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.01

AAR Corp. (AIR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.20B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.01 (+0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AIR SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$100.43-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$98.84-3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$95.25+9.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$104.52+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AIR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, AIR faces multiple-compression risk if 22.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 16.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($112.72) or 200D SMA ($118.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($106.40) toward Bear Floor ($82.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AIR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.6%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AIR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AIR.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AIR & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AIR
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $101.8H $104.5L $98.86C $104.5VOL 361.7K

RES: $171.4SUP: $88.17SMA50: $112.7SMA200: $118.5

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AIR Butterfly Map → + Track AIR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

16.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AIR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AIR)

Industrials Rank #137 of 485 ⚔️ BETA vs AIR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AIR vs. BETA, JOBY, ACHR, AVAV)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AAR Corp. (AIR) ranks #137 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #161 by equity capitalization ($4.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIR leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. AIR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AIR ACTIVE AAR Corp.	C	62/100	22.4x	18.8%	12.0%	+3.67%	$4.20B	Benchmark Subject
BETA Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)	D+	52/100	—	72.2%	-35.0%	+2.95%	$4.81B	/beta-vs-air →
JOBY Joby Aviation Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	0.00%	$5.05B	/joby-vs-air →
ACHR Archer Aviation Inc.	E	33/100	—	33.3%	-35.0%	+0.92%	$3.41B	/achr-vs-air →
AVAV AeroVironment Inc.	E	30/100	—	25.3%	-7.6%	+7.09%	$6.85B	/avav-vs-air →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-05-31 • CIK 0000001750

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31), AAR Corp. (AIR) reported GAAP revenue of $3.31B (+19.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.78B ) , GAAP net income of $187.7M, operating cash flow of $98.7M, and free cash flow of $62.1M (+4335.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AIR closed FY2025 with $3.24B in total assets against $952.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-05-31	$3.31B	$187.7M	$98.7M	$62.1M	$3.24B	$952.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-05-31	$2.78B	$12.5M	$36.1M	$1.4M	$2.85B	$986.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-05-31	$0	$46.3M	$43.6M	$43.6M	—	—

3. AIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $104.52 (+3.67% 1D, market cap $4.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIR ranks #137 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AIR compare to BETA and JOBY in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIR carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.4x, gross margin of 18.8%, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIR?

Per AIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31, CIK 0000001750), AAR Corp. generated $3.31B in revenue (+19.0% YoY), $187.7M in net income, and $62.1M in free cash flow against $3.24B in total assets and $952.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AIR last traded at $104.52 (+3.67% on volume of 436,120 shares), positioning the stock -7.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($112.72) and -11.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($118.50). Across its 52-week range of $76.10 to $154.00, AIR sits at the 36.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($96.58 to $112.46).