MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
What Sent FTAI Aviation Stock Higher?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Why AIR Stock surged +3.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$104.52 +3.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.01
AAR Corp. (AIR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $4.20B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.01 (+0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AIR SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$100.43-1.6% Next Q
54
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$98.84-3.6% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$95.25+9.7% Next Q
59
CurrentGrade C$104.52+0.7% Hist 90D α
62
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AIR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 62/100 (C) score, AIR faces multiple-compression risk if 22.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 16.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($112.72) or 200D SMA ($118.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($106.40) toward Bear Floor ($82.99).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AIR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AIR Stock surged +3.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
AAR Corp. (AIR) surged +3.67% to $104.52, trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($76.1 – $154). Solid 19% profit margin (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($76.1 – $154) with RSI-14 at 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.6% around $104.52 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 18.8% gross margin and $62.1M annual free cash flow.
Live AIR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 2d ago
Merlin shares are trading lower after the company announced a $80 million PIPE investment.RISK WATCHBenzinga • 2d ago
Director Of AAR Makes $454K SaleEllen Lord, Director at AAR (NYSE:AIR), reported an insider sell on October 29, according to a new SEC filing. What Happened: Lord's decision to sell 4,341 shares of AAR was revealed in a Form 4 filing with the
RISK WATCHBenzinga • 3d ago
McClain John Holmes III Executes Sell Order: Offloads $3.41M In AAR StockMcClain John Holmes III, Chairman at AAR (NYSE:AIR), disclosed an insider sell on October 28, according to a recent SEC filing. What Happened: III's decision to sell 35,000 shares of AAR was revealed in a Form 4
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
AAR (AIR) Down 6.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?AAR (AIR) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 5d ago
Stock Market Today, Oct. 27: Boeing Plummets 11% on Lower Production Rates and Missed Delivery TargetsOn Oct. 27, 2026, the aerospace giant announced it would miss delivery targets and slashed its production targets, sending shares tumbling.
MARKET WIREFintel • 5d ago
AAR Corp. Details Pending $4.0B Acquisition of Controlling Interest in MRO HoldingsRISK WATCHYahoo • 6d ago
C3.ai Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay, Auditor and Equity Plan at Annual MeetingC3.ai (NYSE:AI) stockholders approved all four proposals presented at the company’s 2026 annual meeting, including the election of three Class III directors, an advisory vote on executive compensation, the appointment of
MARKET WIREFintel • 6d ago
AAR CORP. Amends Revolving Credit Facility to Increase Commitments to $1,375.0 MillionMARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
AAR increases size and extends maturity of revolving credit facilityAAR CORP. (NYSE: AIR), the leading parts, repair, and software platform in the aviation aftermarket, today announced that it has amended its revolving credit facility, increasing total commitments to $1.375 billion, an i
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AIR Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $101.8H $104.5L $98.86C $104.5VOL 361.7K
RES: $171.4SUP: $88.17SMA50: $112.7SMA200: $118.5
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
16.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AIR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AIR)
Industrials Rank #137 of 485
⚔️ BETA vs AIR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AIR vs. BETA, JOBY, ACHR, AVAV)
Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AAR Corp. (AIR) ranks #137 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #161 by equity capitalization ($4.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIR leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. AIR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 62/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR
ACTIVE
AAR Corp. | C | 62/100 | 22.4x | 18.8% | 12.0% | +3.67% | $4.20B | Benchmark Subject |
| BETA Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 52/100 | — | 72.2% | -35.0% | +2.95% | $4.81B | /beta-vs-air → |
| JOBY Joby Aviation Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -35.0% | 0.00% | $5.05B | /joby-vs-air → |
| ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | 33.3% | -35.0% | +0.92% | $3.41B | /achr-vs-air → |
| AVAV AeroVironment Inc. | E | 30/100 | — | 25.3% | -7.6% | +7.09% | $6.85B | /avav-vs-air → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-05-31 • CIK 0000001750In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31), AAR Corp. (AIR) reported GAAP revenue of $3.31B (+19.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.78B ) , GAAP net income of $187.7M, operating cash flow of $98.7M, and free cash flow of $62.1M (+4335.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AIR closed FY2025 with $3.24B in total assets against $952.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-05-31 | $3.31B | $187.7M | $98.7M | $62.1M | $3.24B | $952.7M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-05-31 | $2.78B | $12.5M | $36.1M | $1.4M | $2.85B | $986.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-05-31 | $0 | $46.3M | $43.6M | $43.6M | — | — |
3. AIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $104.52 (+3.67% 1D, market cap $4.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIR ranks #137 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AIR compare to BETA and JOBY in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIR carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.4x, gross margin of 18.8%, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIR?
Per AIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31, CIK 0000001750), AAR Corp. generated $3.31B in revenue (+19.0% YoY), $187.7M in net income, and $62.1M in free cash flow against $3.24B in total assets and $952.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AIR last traded at $104.52 (+3.67% on volume of 436,120 shares), positioning the stock -7.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($112.72) and -11.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($118.50). Across its 52-week range of $76.10 to $154.00, AIR sits at the 36.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($96.58 to $112.46).
AIR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AIR stock moving today?
Why AIR Stock surged +3.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 19% profit margin (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.