Stock Ratings / Industrials / AIR / earnings

BETA (52) JOBY (38) ACHR (33) AVAV (30) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

AAR Corp. (AIR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.6% Move

$104.52 +3.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.01

AAR Corp. (AIR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.20B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AIR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $104.52 (+3.67% 1D, market cap $4.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIR ranks #137 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AIR compare to BETA and JOBY in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIR carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.4x, gross margin of 18.8%, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $5.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIR?

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Per AIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31, CIK 0000001750), AAR Corp. generated $3.31B in revenue (+19.0% YoY), $187.7M in net income, and $62.1M in free cash flow against $3.24B in total assets and $952.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $105.01 (+0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AIR SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$100.43-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$98.84-3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$95.25+9.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$104.52+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AIR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, AIR faces multiple-compression risk if 22.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 16.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($112.72) or 200D SMA ($118.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($106.40) toward Bear Floor ($82.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AIR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Nov 29, 2026 (~27 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.6% Swing Band

±$7.94 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AIR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $4.67 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-05-31	$3.31B	$187.7M	$62.1M	18.8%
FY 2024	2025-05-31	$2.78B	$12.5M	$1.4M	19%
FY 2023	2024-05-31	$0	$46.3M	$43.6M	18.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AIR & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AIR
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $101.8H $104.5L $98.86C $104.5VOL 361.7K

RES: $171.4SUP: $88.17SMA50: $112.7SMA200: $118.5

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AIR Butterfly Map → + Track AIR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

16.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AIR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AIR)

Industrials Rank #137 of 485 ⚔️ BETA vs AIR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AIR vs. BETA, JOBY, ACHR, AVAV)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AAR Corp. (AIR) ranks #137 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #161 by equity capitalization ($4.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIR leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. AIR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AIR ACTIVE AAR Corp.	C	62/100	22.4x	18.8%	12.0%	+3.67%	$4.20B	Benchmark Subject
BETA Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)	D+	52/100	—	72.2%	-35.0%	+2.95%	$4.81B	/beta-vs-air →
JOBY Joby Aviation Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	0.00%	$5.05B	/joby-vs-air →
ACHR Archer Aviation Inc.	E	33/100	—	33.3%	-35.0%	+0.92%	$3.41B	/achr-vs-air →
AVAV AeroVironment Inc.	E	30/100	—	25.3%	-7.6%	+7.09%	$6.85B	/avav-vs-air →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-05-31 • CIK 0000001750

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31), AAR Corp. (AIR) reported GAAP revenue of $3.31B (+19.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.78B ) , GAAP net income of $187.7M, operating cash flow of $98.7M, and free cash flow of $62.1M (+4335.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AIR closed FY2025 with $3.24B in total assets against $952.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-05-31	$3.31B	$187.7M	$98.7M	$62.1M	$3.24B	$952.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-05-31	$2.78B	$12.5M	$36.1M	$1.4M	$2.85B	$986.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-05-31	$0	$46.3M	$43.6M	$43.6M	—	—

3. AIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AIR compare to BETA and JOBY in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIR?

Where is AIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AIR last traded at $104.52 (+3.67% on volume of 436,120 shares), positioning the stock -7.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($112.72) and -11.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($118.50). Across its 52-week range of $76.10 to $154.00, AIR sits at the 36.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($96.58 to $112.46).