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Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.65 +0.38% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.65

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $17.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.65 (-0.12%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AHT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AHT SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 28% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.17-15.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$1.83+54.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.82-6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$2.65-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AHT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AHT currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.66) and Max Pain ($2.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AHT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AHT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

53.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

1 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE

L: $2$2.65H: $5

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AHT

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

85.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (38)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AHT

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AHT)

✓Walkthrough of AHT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AHT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.93%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.60H $2.67L $2.45C $2.65VOL 170.8K

RES: $3.18SUP: $1.54SMA50: $2.66SMA200: $3.05

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AHT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AHT Butterfly Map → + Track AHT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AHT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AHT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AHT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AHT)

Financials Rank #951 of 1096 ⚔️ MDRR vs AHT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AHT vs. MDRR, NYC, LFT, GPMT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) ranks #951 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #1063 by equity capitalization ($17.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AHT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MDRR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with AHT at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AHT ACTIVE Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc	D	44/100	—	—	85.0%	+0.38%	$17.1M	Benchmark Subject
MDRR Medalist Diversified Inc.	D+	53/100	—	—	6.4%	0.00%	$17.1M	/mdrr-vs-aht →
NYC American Strategic Investment Co. (Class A)	D-	39/100	—	—	5.5%	0.00%	$18.4M	/nyc-vs-aht →
LFT Lument Finance Trust Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	-1.3%	-1.27%	$20.5M	/lft-vs-aht →
GPMT Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.	D	51/100	—	—	-7.4%	-2.00%	$21.2M	/gpmt-vs-aht →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001232582

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.10B (-5.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.17B , and -19.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$179.8M, operating cash flow of -$15.7M, and free cash flow of -$15.7M (+33.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AHT closed FY2025 with $2.83B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.10B	-$179.8M	-$15.7M	-$15.7M	$2.83B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.17B	-$60.3M	-$23.6M	-$23.6M	$3.16B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.37B	-$178.5M	$14.4M	$14.4M	—	—

3. AHT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AHT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (NYSE: AHT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $2.65 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $17.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AHT ranks #951 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AHT compare to MDRR and NYC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), AHT carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, MDRR (Medalist Diversified Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.4%, cap $17.1M) and NYC (American Strategic Investment Co. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.5%, cap $18.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AHT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AHT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AHT?

Per AHT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001232582), Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc generated $1.10B in revenue (-5.8% YoY), -$179.8M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $2.83B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AHT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AHT last traded at $2.65 (+0.38% on volume of 54,257 shares), positioning the stock -0.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.66) and -13.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.05). Across its 52-week range of $1.74 to $5.00, AHT sits at the 27.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.32 to $2.98).

AHT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AHT stock right now?

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 44/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AHT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AHT's 12-month base price target is $2.48 (range $1.93 to $5.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AHT RQD Cockpit AHT 12M Forecast AHT Earnings & Move AHT Dividends & DRIP AHT Insiders & 13F AHT Whale Options AHT Profit Sankey AHT News & Why