Stock Ratings / Financials / AGO / insiders

SLDE (82) SPNT (64) NMIH (68) HG (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$70.88 +2.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.03

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.12B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.03 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 6.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AGO SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$70.03+1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$70.85-2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$69.46+2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$70.88+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AGO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, AGO faces multiple-compression risk if 6.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($71.27) or 200D SMA ($79.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($72.47) toward Bear Floor ($56.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AGO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

AGO Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (AGO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on AGO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AGO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AGO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.46%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $71.73H $71.73L $69.99C $70.88VOL 350.8K

RES: $91.54SUP: $65.84SMA50: $71.27SMA200: $79.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGO Butterfly Map → + Track AGO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGO)

Financials Rank #383 of 1096 ⚔️ SLDE vs AGO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGO vs. SLDE, SPNT, NMIH, HG)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) ranks #383 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #361 by equity capitalization ($3.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with AGO at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AGO ACTIVE Assured Guaranty Ltd.	C	63/100	6.2x	—	8.9%	+2.25%	$3.12B	Benchmark Subject
SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.	A-	82/100	7.2x	—	39.9%	+1.29%	$3.22B	/slde-vs-ago →
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd.	C	64/100	6.6x	—	18.6%	+2.69%	$3.01B	/spnt-vs-ago →
NMIH NMI Holdings Inc.	C+	68/100	8.4x	—	15.0%	+2.54%	$3.25B	/nmih-vs-ago →
HG Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-0.72%	$2.86B	/hg-vs-ago →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001273813

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $503.0M, operating cash flow of $259.0M, and free cash flow of $259.0M (+451.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGO closed FY2025 with $12.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$503.0M	$259.0M	$259.0M	$12.18B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$376.0M	$47.0M	$47.0M	$11.90B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$53.0M	$739.0M	$461.0M	$461.0M	—	—

3. AGO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $70.88 (+2.25% 1D, market cap $3.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AGO ranks #383 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGO compare to SLDE and SPNT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AGO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (82/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.22B) and SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 6.6x, ROIC 18.6%, cap $3.01B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGO?

Per AGO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273813), Assured Guaranty Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $503.0M in net income, and $259.0M in free cash flow against $12.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGO last traded at $70.88 (+2.25% on volume of 505,676 shares), positioning the stock -0.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($71.27) and -10.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($79.00). Across its 52-week range of $67.24 to $92.40, AGO sits at the 14.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($68.19 to $73.57).

AGO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are AGO insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies AGO leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: AGO RQD Cockpit AGO 12M Forecast AGO Earnings & Move AGO Dividends & DRIP AGO Insiders & 13F AGO Whale Options AGO Profit Sankey AGO News & Why