Stock Ratings / Financials / AGO / earnings

SLDE (82) SPNT (64) NMIH (68) HG (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.8% Move

$70.88 +2.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.03

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.12B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AGO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $70.88 (+2.25% 1D, market cap $3.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AGO ranks #383 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGO compare to SLDE and SPNT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AGO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (82/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.22B) and SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 6.6x, ROIC 18.6%, cap $3.01B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGO?

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Per AGO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273813), Assured Guaranty Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $503.0M in net income, and $259.0M in free cash flow against $12.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.03 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 6.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AGO SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$70.03+1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$70.85-2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$69.46+2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$70.88+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AGO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, AGO faces multiple-compression risk if 6.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($71.27) or 200D SMA ($79.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($72.47) toward Bear Floor ($56.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AGO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.8% Swing Band

±$2.69 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AGO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $11.44 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$503.0M	$259.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$376.0M	$47.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$53.0M	$739.0M	$461.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AGO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AGO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AGO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.46%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $71.73H $71.73L $69.99C $70.88VOL 350.8K

RES: $91.54SUP: $65.84SMA50: $71.27SMA200: $79.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGO Butterfly Map → + Track AGO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGO)

Financials Rank #383 of 1096 ⚔️ SLDE vs AGO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGO vs. SLDE, SPNT, NMIH, HG)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) ranks #383 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #361 by equity capitalization ($3.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with AGO at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AGO ACTIVE Assured Guaranty Ltd.	C	63/100	6.2x	—	8.9%	+2.25%	$3.12B	Benchmark Subject
SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.	A-	82/100	7.2x	—	39.9%	+1.29%	$3.22B	/slde-vs-ago →
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd.	C	64/100	6.6x	—	18.6%	+2.69%	$3.01B	/spnt-vs-ago →
NMIH NMI Holdings Inc.	C+	68/100	8.4x	—	15.0%	+2.54%	$3.25B	/nmih-vs-ago →
HG Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-0.72%	$2.86B	/hg-vs-ago →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001273813

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $503.0M, operating cash flow of $259.0M, and free cash flow of $259.0M (+451.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGO closed FY2025 with $12.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$503.0M	$259.0M	$259.0M	$12.18B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$376.0M	$47.0M	$47.0M	$11.90B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$53.0M	$739.0M	$461.0M	$461.0M	—	—

3. AGO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AGO compare to SLDE and SPNT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGO?

Where is AGO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGO last traded at $70.88 (+2.25% on volume of 505,676 shares), positioning the stock -0.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($71.27) and -10.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($79.00). Across its 52-week range of $67.24 to $92.40, AGO sits at the 14.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($68.19 to $73.57).