MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AGIO Stock dropped -2.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$37.23 -2.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.00
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $2.22B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.00 (-0.61%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGIO SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (36% of score)
Altman Z-Score 11.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 88.3% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$31.81-1.5% Next Q
31
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$31.32+18.1% Next Q
34
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$37.00+0.6% Next Q
36
CurrentGrade D-$37.23-7.6% Hist 90D α
39
Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGIO Turnaround Squeeze
While AGIO currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($33.62) and Max Pain ($39.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $48.30.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AGIO Stock dropped -2.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) dropped -2.33% to $37.23, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($22.24 – $46). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-34% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($22.24 – $46) with RSI-14 at 37.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.2% around $37.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 88.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AGIO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGIO)
- ✓Walkthrough of AGIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.96%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $31.43H $37.23L $29.80C $37.23VOL 3.09M
RES: $30.83SUP: $29.79SMA50: $33.62SMA200: $31.70
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AGIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +48.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGIO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGIO)
Health Care Rank #660 of 1016
⚔️ PRGO vs AGIO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGIO vs. PRGO, SDGR, VERA, HRMY)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) ranks #660 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #241 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRMY leads on earnings valuation at 14.2x trailing P/E, while HRMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.0% ROIC and 77.2% gross margin. HRMY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with AGIO at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGIO
ACTIVE
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 88.3% | -33.8% | -2.33% | $2.22B | Benchmark Subject |
| PRGO Perrigo Company plc | D- | 41/100 | — | 35.1% | -13.6% | -0.13% | $2.21B | /prgo-vs-agio → |
| SDGR Schrodinger Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | 55.7% | -35.0% | -2.85% | $2.24B | /sdgr-vs-agio → |
| VERA Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A) | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.32% | $2.20B | /vera-vs-agio → |
| HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. | B+ | 80/100 | 14.2x | 77.2% | 63.0% | +0.23% | $2.25B | /hrmy-vs-agio → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001439222In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) reported GAAP revenue of $54.0M (+48.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.5M , and +101.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$413.0M, operating cash flow of -$373.0M, and free cash flow of -$377.3M (+3.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGIO closed FY2025 with $1.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $54.0M | -$413.0M | -$373.0M | -$377.3M | $1.30B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $36.5M | $674.0M | -$389.8M | -$391.5M | $1.66B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $26.8M | -$352.0M | -$296.1M | -$296.1M | — | — |
3. AGIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AGIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $37.23 (-2.33% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGIO ranks #660 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AGIO compare to PRGO and SDGR in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AGIO carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 88.3%, and ROIC of -33.8%. By comparison, PRGO (Perrigo Company plc) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $2.21B) and SDGR (Schrodinger Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRMY leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?
Per AGIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001439222), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $54.0M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$413.0M in net income, and -$377.3M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AGIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AGIO last traded at $37.23 (-2.33% on volume of 984,452 shares), positioning the stock +10.74% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.62) and +17.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($31.70). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $46.00, AGIO sits at the 63.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($33.43 to $41.03).
AGIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AGIO stock moving today?
Why AGIO Stock dropped -2.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-34% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.