Stock Ratings / Health Care / AGIO / financials

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Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$37.23 -2.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.00

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.22B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AGIO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AGIO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $37.23 (-2.33% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGIO ranks #305 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGIO compare to PRGO and SDGR in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AGIO carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 88.3%, and ROIC of -33.8%. By comparison, PRGO (Perrigo Company plc) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $2.21B) and SDGR (Schrodinger Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRMY leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?

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Per AGIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001439222), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $54.0M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$413.0M in net income, and -$377.3M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.00 (-0.61%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AGIO SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$30.82+13.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$34.90+5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$36.85+1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$37.23-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGIO currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($33.71) and Max Pain ($39.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $48.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AGIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How AGIO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $26.8M

FY24

Rev $36.5M

FY25

Rev $54.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$54.0M	88.3%	-80%	-$413.0M	-$377.3M	-33.8%
FY 2024	$36.5M	88.6%	-80%	$674.0M	-$391.5M	-23%
FY 2023	$26.8M	88.3%	-80%	-$352.0M	-$296.1M	-33.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGIO)

✓Walkthrough of AGIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AGIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +35.09%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $38.12H $38.12L $37.23C $37.23VOL 984.5K

RES: $38.80SUP: $29.80SMA50: $33.71SMA200: $31.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGIO Butterfly Map → + Track AGIO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +48.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGIO)

Health Care Rank #305 of 1016 ⚔️ PRGO vs AGIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGIO vs. PRGO, SDGR, VERA, HRMY)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) ranks #305 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #241 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRMY leads on earnings valuation at 14.2x trailing P/E, while HRMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.0% ROIC and 77.2% gross margin. HRMY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 86/100 (A) compared with AGIO at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AGIO ACTIVE Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	49/100	—	88.3%	-33.8%	-2.33%	$2.22B	Benchmark Subject
PRGO Perrigo Company plc	D	49/100	—	35.1%	-13.6%	-0.13%	$2.21B	/prgo-vs-agio →
SDGR Schrodinger Inc.	D+	56/100	—	55.7%	-35.0%	-2.85%	$2.24B	/sdgr-vs-agio →
VERA Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.32%	$2.20B	/vera-vs-agio →
HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc.	A	86/100	14.2x	77.2%	63.0%	+0.23%	$2.25B	/hrmy-vs-agio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001439222

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) reported GAAP revenue of $54.0M (+48.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.5M , and +101.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$413.0M, operating cash flow of -$373.0M, and free cash flow of -$377.3M (+3.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGIO closed FY2025 with $1.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$54.0M	-$413.0M	-$373.0M	-$377.3M	$1.30B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$36.5M	$674.0M	-$389.8M	-$391.5M	$1.66B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$26.8M	-$352.0M	-$296.1M	-$296.1M	—	—

3. AGIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AGIO compare to PRGO and SDGR in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?

Where is AGIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGIO last traded at $37.23 (-2.33% on volume of 984,452 shares), positioning the stock +10.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.71) and +17.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($31.74). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $46.00, AGIO sits at the 63.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.1% ($33.47 to $40.99).

AGIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), AGIO converted $54.0M of revenue into a 88.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGIO RQD Cockpit AGIO 12M Forecast AGIO Earnings & Move AGIO Dividends & DRIP AGIO Insiders & 13F AGIO Whale Options AGIO Profit Sankey AGIO News & Why