Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ACEL / forecast

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Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.30 +1.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.32

Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $917.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.32 (+0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ACEL SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.5% FCF Margin ($62.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$11.00-1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$10.88+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$11.00+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$11.30+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ACEL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ACEL faces multiple-compression risk if 17.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.28) or 200D SMA ($11.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.61) toward Bear Floor ($9.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ACEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ACEL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.30: 885.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.06

$8,018

$-1,982 (-19.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.61

$10,274

+$274 (+2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $14.70

$13,009

+$3,009 (+30.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$12	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$14	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$10	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ACEL Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ACEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.53%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $11.37H $11.43L $11.25C $11.30VOL 393.4K

RES: $11.45SUP: $9.82SMA50: $11.28SMA200: $11.71

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACEL Butterfly Map → + Track ACEL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACEL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #303 of 1011 ⚔️ FBYD vs ACEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ACEL vs. FBYD, FUN, BUUU, RSVR)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) ranks #303 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #520 by equity capitalization ($917.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACEL leads on earnings valuation at 17.8x trailing P/E, while ACEL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.7% ROIC and — gross margin. ACEL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ACEL ACTIVE Accel Entertainment Inc.	C	64/100	17.8x	—	15.7%	+1.89%	$917.5M	Benchmark Subject
FBYD Falcon's Beyond Global Inc. (Class A)	D-	37/100	—	—	-22.8%	-0.39%	$930.1M	/fbyd-vs-acel →
FUN Six Flags Entertainment Corporation	D	48/100	—	91.3%	-19.3%	+1.86%	$785.8M	/fun-vs-acel →
BUUU BUUU Group Limited Class A Ordinary Share	D	49/100	—	31.0%	—	-1.02%	$1.10B	/buuu-vs-acel →
RSVR Reservoir Media Inc.	C	62/100	80.8x	64.7%	3.8%	+0.31%	$632.3M	/rsvr-vs-acel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001698991

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $51.5M, operating cash flow of $150.9M, and free cash flow of $62.0M (+13.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACEL closed FY2025 with $1.10B in total assets against $569.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$51.5M	$150.9M	$62.0M	$1.10B	$569.8M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$35.3M	$121.2M	$54.7M	$1.05B	$560.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$45.6M	$132.5M	$132.5M	—	—

3. ACEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Accel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: ACEL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $11.30 (+1.89% 1D, market cap $917.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ACEL ranks #303 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ACEL compare to FBYD and FUN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), ACEL carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, FBYD (Falcon's Beyond Global Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $930.1M) and FUN (Six Flags Entertainment Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.3%, cap $785.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACEL leads on earnings multiple (17.8x) while ACEL leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACEL?

Per ACEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001698991), Accel Entertainment Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $51.5M in net income, and $62.0M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $569.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACEL last traded at $11.30 (+1.89% on volume of 331,772 shares), positioning the stock +0.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.28) and -3.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.71). Across its 52-week range of $9.55 to $14.00, ACEL sits at the 39.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($10.70 to $11.90).

ACEL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ACEL's 12-month stock price target?

Accel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.61 (+2.7% from $11.30), with a bull-case target of $14.7 and a bear-case floor of $9.06.

Is ACEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ACEL C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 64/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ACEL RQD Cockpit ACEL 12M Forecast ACEL Earnings & Move ACEL Dividends & DRIP ACEL Insiders & 13F ACEL Whale Options ACEL Profit Sankey ACEL News & Why